Cramer's Mad Money - The Worst-Case Scenario For The Dow (6/6/13)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program,

Worst Case Dow Scenarios: American Express (NYSE:AXP), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Disney (NYSE:DIS), Dupont (DD), Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)

With the Dow falling and rising to finish 80 up 80 points on Thursday, Cramer discussed where he sees the Dow heading. What caused the recent rally was a wave of takeovers followed by a strong spring for housing. However, the success of rising home prices led to a rise in mortgage rates, which may impact demand. Cramer sees the Dow dropping 600 points before buyers come back in and create another rally.

American Express (AXP) reported a good number, but has run too much. Cramer thinks it could fall10%. Boeing (BA) is one of the strongest stocks in the Dow, but it may decline 10%. Cisco (CSCO) reported the first good quarter in years, and should be headed higher. Disney (DIS) is vulnerable, and could give up $3 to $4 before buyers come in. DuPont (DD) reported a fabulous quarter related to housing and could stay $3 above where it reported. Hewlett Packard (HPQ) reported an excellent quarter and has a strong balance sheet, but is still not a strong company; Cramer thinks the stock could drop $3. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) has rallied, but if housing slows, it could show a sharp decline. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has run and has a strong dividend stocks, but there is a sector rotation out of high-yielders. 3M (NYSE:MM) reported a disappointing quarter but did not decline; it is not a strong enough company to weather a bad employment number. IBM's (IBM) quarter was poor and it should shed 10 points on a disappointing jobs number. Wal-Mart (WMT) has been a successful stock, but is not a strong company, and it should give up its gains. McDonald's (MCD) could shed $4-$5. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) are likely to give up their gains on weak economic news. Microsoft (MSFT) has been downgraded 3 times and has yet to move down. JPMorgan (JPM) is a good company, but banks can often get hit hard.

The total decline for the Dow Cramer predicts in a worst case scenario is 600 points. However, he sees this decline as a "reasonable retreat" before buyers come back in again.

Cramer took some calls:

Verizon's dividend is secure because of its generous cash flow. Cramer thinks it should be a bit lower, especially if interest rates go higher.
NewsCorp (NASDAQ:NWSA): Cramer likes the "new" Newscorp, or the non-publishing segment, when the company splits.

CEO: Jim Morgan, Krispy Kreme (KKD)

Krispy Kreme (KKD) has a sizzling hot IPO and rose aggressively before accounting issues and an overly rapid expansion strategy caused the stock to fall. Jim Morgan took the helm as CEO, and since then, the stock has risen 46%. The company reported a 4 cent earnings beat and a huge same store sales increase of 11.4%. The company has plans to expand domestically and internationally, but Jim Morgan said, "We have been careful not to expand until we are ready." KKD expanded its marketing team and is finding ways of getting customers to eat donuts throughout the day. KKD now offers specialty coffees, such as lattes, and the beverage additions in general have met with success. "Our brand is so much bigger than our company," said Morgan, who admitted that the 11.4% same store sales growth may be difficult to repeat, but he expects numbers in the high single digits for the remainder of the year. When asked about how KKD is dealing with the trend toward healthy eating, which might hurt the donut business, Morgan replied, "This is an affordable indulgence," and added, "We think Krispy Kreme is a great product for emotional health." Cramer thinks KKD may have more growth potential right now than Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) or Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) Is Begging To Be Taken Over. Other stocks mentioned: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B), (NYSE:BRK.A), Kraft (KRFT), Pinnacle Foods (NYSE:PF), Annie's (NYSE:BNNY), Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE)

Cramer thinks Post Holdings (POST) is a company "begging to be taken over." POST has a tiny market cap of $1.5 billion, and was spun off 16 months ago. While the company has done quite well independently, Cramer thinks it is too small to exist by itself. One reason is that the lackluster performance of one brand, in this case, Honeybunches, can hit the company hard, as it did in the latest quarter, when POST declined from $47 to $42. POST is well-managed and has gained 51% since Cramer recommended it following its IPO. POST is also vulnerable to supermarket promotions that can cut into its gross margins. Cramer sees a general consolidation in the packaged food industry, similar to the plethora of deals in the industry 10 years ago, and thinks there might be 3 potential suitors for POST. The company could be bought by its former owner, Kraft (KRFT), Warrren Buffett might consider adding to his food holdings with POST or Pinnacle Foods (PF), a company which specializing in revitalizing old brands and which wants to increase its shelf space, might consider buying the company. POST has strong enough fundamentals that it could see a gain without a takeover, but Cramer predicts a buyout could cause the stock to rise from 25% to 50%.

Cramer took some calls:

Annies (BNNY) is benefiting from the healthy eating trend, and while a bit pricey, is a buy.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is well-managed and should have some upside.

Lightning Round

All STate (NYSE:ALL) that had a quick 10% move down I like the insurers here. I think that's terrific.

ALNY we like that. It is a very speculative pharma we are going to stock by it.

CLMT I'm going to say it is okay. I saw the selling in these MLPs abate. I think they went up a little today they could test a little I think you are going to be fine in CLMT. It isnot my favorite in the group, but it is okay

Micron (NASDAQ:MU)I thin it goe shigher. They make flash and they make DRAMs and both of those are goin gup in price...Micron even at 12 is still a buy, buy, buy

Visa (NYSE:V) I would use deep in the money call strategy I would buy some visa if we have a bad jobs numer and the stock drops I would buy some. I like Visa

Titan TWI that is a big business and you are buying that stock at a discount. It is inexpensive.


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