After rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2000 to 2008, flat panel display (FPD) sales will rise only 1% each year from 2008 to 2016, according to the latest Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report from DisplaySearch.
The Q209 forecast said that FPD revenues will decline 20% from 2008 to 2009, as slack demand takes its toll on end-product markets in developed countries and price-cutting further affects LCD TVpanel revenue.
LCD is currently dominant technology for today’s flat-panel displays, but newer technologies - such as electrophoretic and OLED technologies - are expected to experience more growth over the long term, DisplaySearch said.
2010 Outlook More Positive
The outlook for 2010 is more positive, with an annual revenue growth of 13% in 2010. “Despite the overall flat outlook for flat-panel displays, there are some bright spots in the long-term,” said David Barnes, DisplaySearch’s VP of strategic analysis.
Barnes noted that the following five applications will provide the strongest growth opportunities for display manufacturers and will drive the greatest demand: OLED TV, eBook, mini-note PC (netbooks), digital picture frames and public displays.
Key predictions from the report:
- OLED revenues from TV applications will increase at a CAGR of 140% from 2008 to 2016.
- Demand for electronic books will lift revenue of electrophoretic and similar display technologies at a 49% CAGR.
- Several technologies, TFT LCD in particular, support public display applications such as out-of-home advertising, which is forecast to grow 20% a year—reaching almost $3 billion in 2016.
- Mini-note PCs are becoming increasingly popular and panel revenue for such producgts is expected to rise 15% a year to more than $2 billion in 2016.
- Digital picture frames became a hot market in 2007, and this application may still support revenue growth of 11% per year.
Death Knell for CRTs
From a technology standpoint, DisplaySearch research foresees an end to CRT shipments to desktop monitor makers this year. Some CRT monitor business may survive in emerging markets around the world, but DisplaySearch sees little demand for such products after 2009. CRT revenues from TV applications will decline 34% each year from 2008 to 2016 as the price-performance of LCD and OLED TV sets improve.
LCDs Stuck in Neutral
DisplaySearch reported earlier this year that 2009 would be the first year that LCD TV displays did not experience YoY revenue growth, and the firm still does not expect any significant change from 2008 to 2016 in LCD technology. Price declines and commodity demand for TV sets smaller than 50” will constrain sales, even though LCD TV will remain the most significant application for panel makers.
Mobile Phone Tech Market Grows
In terms of specific markets for FPDs, DisplaySearch said that LCD and other technologies for mobile-phone applications are expected to become the second-largest market, behind LCD TVs, for FPDs. At the same time, conventional notebook PC displays will become a larger market than desktop displays by 2015, with panel revenue for conventional notebooks expected to rise 3% a year to almost $15 billion in 2016.
Panel revenue for desktop monitor and plasma TV applications may decline 6% and 7% a year, respectively, as these applications are replaced by other PC and TV products, DisplaySearch said.
About the report: The DisplaySearch Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report details shipments of 23 display technologies for 36 applications by quarter from 2007 through 2016.