Major Currencies Prepare for Asian Breaks

by: The LFB

Overall, the dollar index declined strongly during the first part of the day, with the dollar index breaking below the 79.00 area. However, the majors’ uptrend was halted during the U.S. session as the S&P futures topped out. Ahead, the majors are expected to continue to move higher, as long as the S&P futures remain above the break-even line and as long as crude oil continues to retrace the declines seen over the last few weeks.

The Euro (Eur/Usd) advanced 140 pips during the Asian session and during the early European session, but since then, the pair developed a 40-pip side-ways channel. Chances are that the euro will test the high of the current year over the next few trading sessions, if the market remains in a risk-tolerance mode.

The Pound (Gbp/Usd) gained 220 pips on Monday, having one of the best days of the last few weeks of trading. For now, the pound is preparing to test the 1.6600 area, which holds the pair for almost 9 months now. Ahead, the pound’s calendar is clear of any releases over the next few trading sessions, something that may influence the pair’s behavior.

The Aussie (Aud/Usd) was the only pair that managed to reach a new high during the U.S. session, and so far, the only pair that has managed to break above the side-ways channel developed during most of the European and the U.S. sessions. This happened as investors are preparing for the RBA minutes, which are expected to denote a bullish sentiment among the central bank.

The Cad (Usd/Cad) sold off almost 130 pips during the Asian and the U.S. sessions, but since then, the cad has retraced back some of the ground lost earlier into the day. The cad’s decline comes as the dollar headed lower most of the time during the first part of the day. On Tuesday, the BoC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 0.25%.

The Swissy (Usd/Chf) had a very strong overnight session, which sent the pair approximately 100 pips lower. However, during the middle of the European session, the pair reached the support trend-line that connects the 2009.06.02 and the 2009.06.24 lows, and since then has failed to move anywhere lower.

The Yen (Usd/Yen) advanced 60 pips during the first part of the day, but the pair started to move lower during the U.S. session, shedding every pip gained earlier in the day. The yen’s sell off came as the S&P futures failed to move higher, while it bounced from the 20-day moving average.