Nikkei 225: The Abenomics Rally And Aftermath ... So Far

Includes: EWJ, FXY, NKY
by: Doug Short

Now that Abenomics has its own entry in Wikipedia (the economic policies of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe), let's take a quick look at the Nikkei 225 since its November 2011 low, just before Abe's campaign promises began to lift the market.

Based on closes, the Nikkei rose 80.1% from November 12, 2012 to its May 22 high. It has now fallen 20.4% as of June 13th, 16 market days later.

Based on intraday highs and lows, the index peaked on May 23rd and fell into bear market territory 11 sessions later, down 21.3% on Friday of last week.

(Click to enlarge)

Not surprisingly, a chart of the yen has the reverse shape.

(Click to enlarge)

The rally in equities was overdone, to be sure, assisted by the fall of the yen. Japan is more or less betting the bank, but there will be more innings in this game.