U.S. 5 Year Bond Auction Effectively Fails

by: Karl Denninger

That's right, FAILS.

No, you didn't hear it reported this way and won't, but that's the math.

Here you have the results:

And here's the math:

1.923 BTC X 61.59% Primary Dealer bid = 1.18 BTC (PD), greater than 1.0. Or to put it a different way, but for the primary dealers the bid-to-cover was less than one, meaning that some of the issue would have been left on the table.

Thats a fail; but for the primary dealers the issue would not have subscribed.

Primary dealers are required to bid. That's the deal in exchange for their being named as "primary dealers." For this reason short of thermonuclear war you will never see an actual (BTC < 1.0) "fail" on a US Treasury Auction - Treasury has rigged the process so as to insure that cannot be reported.

Therefore, the question is this: Less the primary dealer "bid" (forced by agreement) was there sufficient interest to subscribe the issue, and the answer is NO.

Those who think this is "no big deal" need to have their head examined. In general any BTC under 2.0 indicates a serious problem, and the perverse nature of the primary dealer system is the reason.

The United States' Credit Card (issued by China and Japan) is being slowly cut off. That the stock market "recovered" after this ridiculously bad auction (bow-wow is the best way to describe it) speaks to the vacuum between the ears of both the cheerleaders in the mainstream media and those in the equity markets.

There is only one other time in recent memory that we've had a bond market auction fail like this. You might want to go have a look at your charts - with dates - for what followed shortly thereafter.

They're going to try to sell 7yrs Thursday, and then the real fun begins with the quarterly refunding.

That ought to be a real riot.

President Obama, you might want to have a chat with Bill Clinton about the Bond Market and Hillarycare, lest you wind up learning this lesson the hard way.