ETF Trends: Dollar Slope Remains Downwards

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Includes: AGG, BZF, CYB, DBA, DBB, DBC, DIA, FNIO, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXM, FXRU, FXY, GLD, HYG, ICN, IEF, ITB, IWM, IYR, IYZ, JJCTF, JNK, MUB, PHO, QQQ, REM, REZ, RTL-OLD, SHY, SLV, SPY, TIP, TLT, UGA, UNG, USO, UUP, VXX, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY
by: J Clinton Hill

Bullish Events: June-2009 Pending Home Sales Index report showed its 5th consecutively monthly gain with a reading of 94.7 for a 3.6% monthly increase.

Positive Earnings Surprises: Aerospace (NYSE:TDG); Basic Materials (TG, MWA, WLK, IPHS); Business Services (III, EXBD, IUSA, HEW); Computer & Tech (CRAY, CUTR, FNDT, IIVI, STEC, CTSH, SMSI, TDSC, CBB]], HPY]], PER]]); Construction (DHI, GLDD, PHM); Consumer Staples (JBT, CHD); Consumer Discretionary (MVL); Industrial Products (SNHY, NPO, POWL, RBC, AIN); Medical (IDRA, SNTS, PRX, ACOR, WST, MD, HSIC, FMS, RIGL); Energy (HNR, GMXR, NRGP, UDRL, CAM, SE, RDC); Financials (PPS, NYM, UTR, EXR, PRA, PNX, FSR, PKY, BMTC, GLAD, HCP, CIB, VNO, MXGL, SPG); Retail Wholesale (PMC; HLF; CVS); Transportation (NYSE:PHH); Utilities (NI, DUK, UNS, ED)

Analyst Upgrades (ABC, BGFV, BIOS, CB, DISH, HGSI, JNS, PKY, RUK, STFC, TLB, TXN, VALE)

Bearish Events: June-2009 Personal Income fell more than expected but was offset by a surprise increase in consumer spending (which is attributed to higher prices at the fuel pump).

Negative Earnings Surprises: Aerospace (NYSE:DCO); Auto (NYSE:TRW); Basic Materials (NYSE:UFS); Business Services (RMG); Computer & Tech (GB, ACTS, ROG); Construction (NYSE:VMC); Consumer Staples (NYSE:ADM); Consumer Discretionary (NYSE:ETM); Energy (DNR, BBG, WTI); Financials (ICE, GLRE, DUF, UBS, FMR, OZM, JOE, ALX); Industrial Products (EMR, CFX, HW, AIMC); Medical (TECH, DRRX, REGN, LGND, BDK); Utilties (ETR, AYE, PGN, PNW, FTR, PPL, NWN, OTTR)

Analyst Downgrades (ABX, AIT, AIXG, B, BGH, BPL, DLR], EXR, HOLX, KALU, LGND, PCAP, PMC, PPL, SMSI, SVNT, VIT, WY)

ETF Equity Indexes: There were no changes to the trends for the major equity indexes as they continued to make progress in their newly formed primary uptrend. Making 5 day new highs for a 2nd consecutive day were the DIA, SPY, and IWM. Most of Tuesday’s trading was mediocre at best, but the final 30 minutes of trading saved investors from what appeared to be a lackluster performance.


ETF Sectors and Key Industries: New 5 day highs (XLF, XLI, XLY, RKH). Short-term trend upgrades (NYSEARCA:XLI). Long-term trend upgrades (NYSEARCA:RKH).

ETF Commodities: New 5 day highs (GLD, SLV). There were no changes to the trends for commodity ETFs covered in this report.

ETF Forex: Short-term trend upgrades (FXY, XRU). On a mildly positive note, the U.S. Dollar ETF managed to not make a new 5 day low. Let’s see if we can get some support from an extremely oversold position. If the stock market is moving up based upon a legitimate economic recovery, then interest rate differentials will eventually provide some support for the greenback. As always, we will give the trends priority and therefore the slope of the dollar remains downward and bearish across all time-frames.

ETF Bonds: Short-term trend downgrades (IEF, TIP); Intermediate-term trend downgrades (NYSEARCA:AGG); and Long-term trend downgrades (NYSEARCA:TIP).

ETF Real Estate: Two days in a row for 5 day new highs (ITB, XHB, IYR). Long-term trend upgrades (NYSEARCA:IYR).

Signing off @ Hillbent for The Market Direction…

Support & Resistance Levels for U.S. Equity Indexes (for 08-05-2009)

Index ETF Ticker S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJ-30 DIA 91.59 92.29 92.74 92.99 93.44 93.69 94.39
SP-500 SPY 98.32 99.38 100.04 100.44 101.10 101.50 102.56
NASDAQ-100 QQQQ 39.18 39.59 39.81 40.00 40.22 40.41 40.82
R2K IWM 54.54 55.70 56.41 56.86 57.57 58.02 59.18
VIX Futures ETF VXX 57.46 59.03 59.62 60.60 61.19 62.17 63.74

ETF Trend Monitor (08-04-2009)

U.S. Equity ETFs Short-term Intermediate Primary
DIA (DJ Industrials) up up up
SPY (S&P 500) up up up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) up up up
IWM (Russell 2000) up up up
VXX (S&P 500 VIX Futures) down down down
Sector ETFs Short-term Intermediate Primary
XLY (Consumer Discrtn) up up up
XLP (Consumer Staples) up up up
XLE (Energy) up up down
XLF (Financials) up up down
XLV (Health Care) up up up
XLI (Industrials) up up lateral
XLB (Materials) up up up
XLK (Technology) up up up
IYZ (Telecom) up up down
XLU (Utilities) up up down
Key Industry ETFs Short-term Intermediate Primary
BBH (Biotech) up up up
OIH (Oil Services) up up down
PPH (Pharmaceuticals) up up up
RKH (Regional Banks) up up up
RTH (Retail) up up up
SMH (Semiconductors) up up up
SWH (Software) up up up
IYT (Transportation) up up up
Commodities Short-term Intermediate Primary
GLD (Gold) up up up
SLV (Silver) up up lateral
DBB (Base Metals) up up up
JJC (Copper) up up up
USO (Oil) up up up
UNG (Natural Gas) up down down
UGA (Gasoline) up up up
DBC (Commodities) up up lateral
DBA (Agriculture) up up lateral
Forex Short-term Intermediate Primary
UUP (U.S. Dollar) down down down
FXE (Euro) up up up
FXY (Japanese Yen) lateral lateral up
FXB (British Pound) up up up
FXC (Canadian Dollar) up up up
FXA (Australian Dollar) up up up
FXM (Mexican Peso) up up lateral
BZF (Brazilian Real) up up up
CYB (Chinese Yuan) lateral lateral lateral
ICN (Indian Rupee) up lateral n/a
XRU (Russian Ruble) up lateral n/a
CEW (Emerging Currency) up up n/a
Bonds Short-term Intermediate Primary
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) lateral lateral lateral
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) down down down
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) lateral down down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) down lateral down
AGG (Investment Grade) lateral lateral up
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) up up up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp) up up up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) lateral lateral lateral
Real Estate Short-term Intermediate Primary
IYR (DJ US Real Estate) up up lateral
XHB (Homebuilders) up up lateral
ITB (Home Construction) up up lateral
FIO (Industrial Office) up up lateral
REM (Mortgage Reits) up up up
REZ (Residential Index) up up lateral
RTL (Retail Index) up up lateral

Market Momentum Monitor (08-04-2009)

Market Momentum 20-Day MA 50-Day MA 200-Day MA
Today 88.85% 88.42% 89.25%
Yesterday 89.46% 88.22% 88.61%
Last Week 88.44% 84.69% 86.10%
Last Month 30.74% 47.18% 67.34%

Disclosures: Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.