Huge Misses In Housing Starts And Building Permits

Includes: ITB, PKB, XHB
by: Bespoke Investment Group

This morning's reports of Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of June both came in well below forecasts. In the case of Housing Starts, total starts came in at 836K, which was 124K below the consensus forecast of 960K. This was the weakest report relative to expectations since January 2008. Building permits were nearly as weak. Coming in at a level of 911K versus expectations of 1,000K, the miss was the largest relative to expectations since May 2007!

The table below breaks down today's Housing Starts and Building Permits report by type of unit and region. For each category, we show the actual levels this month, last month, and last year. We also show how each has changed on a percentage basis in the last month and over the last year. As shown, on a month/month basis, we saw declines in every category except single unit Building Permits and Building Permits in the northeast. The increase in Building Permits of single units was probably one of the lone silver linings in this morning's report, and to a lesser degree, the fact that single unit Housing Starts only declined by 0.8% in the last month was a slight positive. It is often said that single unit Housing Starts and Building Permits have more of an economic impact than multi-family units, so at least those are holding up.

Following this morning's report, we have also updated our charts for each category listed below. If you wish to view these charts please click here.

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