A New Look at the Four Bad Bears

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Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: Bill Luby

While we are waiting to see what the FOMC has to say, I thought I would use this lull to highlight the work of Doug Short, which can be found at dshort.com.

Tuesday, in The Road to Recovery, Doug looked at the profile of recoveries from four strong bear markets. Given the relative ease with which stocks have recovered from their March lows (see chart below), Doug adopts a skeptical tone (which I share) about the path forward for stocks:

Our current market is now 47% above the March 9th low. It has significantly outperformed the 1974 and 2002 rebounds over the equivalent period, and it briefly surpassed the 48% rally in the 1929 Dow. Will it continue to show resilience?

For a related post and graphic that puts the above in a different perspective, readers are encouraged to check out Doug’s The “Real” Mega-Bear Quartet 2000.

[source: dshort.com]

Posted by Bill Luby at 9:51 AM