Cramer's Mad Money - The Rosetta Stone of the Market (9/25/09)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday September 25.

The Rosetta Stones of the Market: Darden (NYSE:DRI), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Jabil Circuits (NYSE:JBL), Flextronics (NASDAQ:FLEX), UPS (NYSE:UPS), CSX (NYSE:CSX), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Pepsi (NYSE:PEP), Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG), Abbott Laboratory (NYSE:ABT), Solvay (OTC:SVYSY)

Jobs and jobless claims are "the rosetta stones of the market." Cramer thinks claims need to be below 400,000, around where they were in December 2007, before investors can begin to think about trading a recovery. He also believes that pulling away from 10% unemployment is edging away from the danger zone.

Cramer also thinks Darden and Nike are reliable "tells" for consumer confidence. If Nike reports less than its expected 5% decline and Darden does better than its predicted 3% decline, Cramer may start to feel bullish. If electronic-manufacturing services company Jabil Circuits gets hit on Tuesday, Cramer would buy Flextronics. The decline in transports UPS, CSX and FDX make defensive stocks Pepsi and Procter&Gamble more attractive.

Cramer likes Abbot Labs, and thinks its acquisition of Solvay, which may go through on Monday, will be a huge benefit. he also predicted that the $8,000 benefit for homebuyers will be extended beyond November.

International Paper (NYSE:IP) CEO John Faraci

Cramer hailed International Paper as "a real turnaround story." While there has already been a "gigantic move off the bottom," Cramer expects an "earnings explosion" as the economy continues to turn around; once shipping orders increase, corrugated boxes become a hot item once again. International Paper controls a third of the U.S. market for these boxes. Dramatic cost-cutting has brought IP's margins from 6% to 11%, and its purchase of Weyerhaeuser’s packaging division will save the company another $500 million. "If there's economic activity out there, we'll see it," Faraci said.

Concerning the dividend which was suspended last year, Faraci said IP will pay a dividend once its debts are covered. China's stimulus plan is boosting sales there, lower interest rates are making financing easier and low natural gas prices have helped IP keep its costs low. Cramer continues to recommend International Paper.

Tech Specs: 3COM (COMS), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)

Cramer found a tech spec that just might be better than Cisco; 3COM specializes in networking equipment, and should benefit from the wireless internet tsunami Cramer has discussed so often. 3COM just reported an "unbelievably fabulous" quarter, beating estimates and raising guidance. This company is cheaper than Cisco, and is picking up market share from its larger peer. Orders are increasing for 3COM products from data centers that weren't able to upgrade during the recession and are pushing their current technology to the limit.

While Cisco has more exposure to China, 3COM is steadily growing in the Middle Kingdom, and already controls 32% of Ethernet switch and router market there. 3COM's business in China accounts for 40% of its sales. The company's balance sheet is clean, and only four analysts (two buys and two holds) are covering the stock. At $4.95, 3COM "can't get any cheaper," Cramer said.

Mad Mail: Wellpoint (WLP), Aetna (NYSE:AET), Select Medical Holdings (NYSE:SEM)

Cramer says Wellpoint is a better investment than Aetna, whose connection with Medicare could hurt it if Obama's healthcare reforms are passed. Concerning Select Medical Holding's IPO, Cramer said he expected it to gain more than it did, but he thinks it can be a hold for an increase of about 10%.


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