Analysts Continue To Use Wrong Benjamin Graham Formula

Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's professor and mentor at Columbia Business School. Buffett even named his son - Howard Graham Buffett - after Graham. In the preface to Graham's book - "The Intelligent Investor" - Buffett calls it "by far the best book about investing ever written."
Serenity's Benjamin Graham Screener applies Graham's 16 financial criteria to 4500 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks to find Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV grade Graham stocks today.
Last year, we briefly saw a formula that Graham actually warned against, but is widely used as "The Benjamin Graham Formula". Today, we will look in greater depth into how this confusion came about, what Graham actually wrote and finally, some stocks that meet the more complex formulas that Graham actually did recommend.
The Wrong Intrinsic Value Formula
The formula itself is mentioned in "Chapter 11: Security Analysis for the Lay Investor" of Graham's seminal book "The Intelligent Investor" as:
Value = Current (Normal) Earnings X (8.5 plus twice the expected annual growth rate)
As shown in the scan above, Graham intended this formula to produce figures close to formal appraisals related to the valuation of growth stocks.
He then uses this formula to make the converse calculation of determining what rates of growth are anticipated by the current market price of a given stock, and then explains why such expectations are almost always unrealistic.
The Cause of the Confusion
What seems to have started the confusion is that the most commonly available edition of the book today is not the one originally written by Graham, but the new version with commentary by Jason Zweig.
In this edition, all the Foot Notes from the original book have been moved to the end of the book to make place for Zweig's commentary. For example, if we look at the same page with the formula in the original book, we see the Foot Note where Graham cautions against using this formula.
But in the new book, the cautionary note is now on Page 585, where no one is likely to see it.
There is also a not-so-clearly labeled warning about the use of such simplistic or predictive methods present in both editions. But again, this is given a few pages later and is easy to miss.
Given below are some of the more prominent Analytical Tools and Websites using this wrong formula. A quick search online will bring up lots more.
3. Fast Graphs
4. Stockopedia
Thus, what started out as a simple editing mistake seems to have snowballed into a gross distortion of fact; turning what was to be a shining example of what not to do, into the most commonly used Graham method today.
The Formulas Graham Actually Gave
The formulas Graham actually recommended are far more complex and given in "Chapter 14: Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor" and "Chapter 15: Stock Selection for the Enterprising Investor".
These formulas and their methods of application have been discussed in extreme detail in the article How To Build A Complete Benjamin Graham Portfolio.
Given below are some of the stocks meeting these more complex Graham formulas today:
Company Name | HollyFrontier Corp | Hallador Energy Co | Compania De Minas Buenaventura | Gold Fields ADR |
Symbol | HFC | |||
Graham Stock Type | Defensive | Enterprising | Enterprising | Enterprising |
Sales | $20,090.00 Million | $141.32 Million | $1,560.00 Million | $3,530.00 Million |
Current Assets | $4,470.27 Million | $34.86 Million | $803.66 Million | $3,875.50 Million |
Current Liabilities | $1,654.44 Million | $11.05 Million | $350.01 Million | $2,200.60 Million |
Long Term Debt | $1,336.24 Million | $11.40 Million | $173.49 Million | $1,828.80 Million |
Years of Uninterrupted Dividends | 20 | 4 | 18 | 20 |
Years of Uninterrupted Earnings | 10 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
Excess Earnings Growth over 10 years | 516% | 2,365.38% | 245.69% | 157.42% |
Tangible Book Value | $29.86 | $5.68 | $14.55 | $7.50 |
EPS | $8.38 | $0.83 | $2.28 | $0.88 |
Graham Price | $57.31 | $6.82 | $17.46 | $8.80 |
Current Price | $41.42 | $6.82 | $11.60 | $4.71 |
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The results were arrived at by automated quantitative analysis and were not verified manually. Verify the validity of the data used - most importantly, for any recent stock splits - before making an investment decision.
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Comments (35)
Thanks Serenity highlight the footnote been shifted for new edition of the book. That formula not indicate true value of stock but helping approximate estimate the value if the future business factor support what figure you put in.

As mentioned, the formula also comes with a detailed and very clearly labelled warning.Unfortunately, the warning is a given couple of pages later and is easily missed. In fact, that's possibly why Graham added the footnote in the first place.

The warning is present in both old and new editions, but on the next page.However, a Graham valuation method with no mention of assets and based on a predictive "expected growth rate" should set off alarm bells for any student of Graham.


What we choose to believe is up to each one of us.

2. It makes no allowance for a Margin of Safety in terms of Assets; only Earnings. "That's where judgment and experience come into play, and programmers and high end mathematicians run into foul territory.You run the formula, see what results, apply the sniff test, compare to other estimates of value based on other criteria, like assets, evaluate the financial statements for liquidity and other signs of impermanence, perhaps with other formulas, add in a Margin of Safety and decide what to do.A bomb disposal officer in the British Army was asked once about how he would handle a bomb type he had never seen before. He advised to examine it very carefully, take his most experienced guess and hope for the best. It's like that in investing, except the only loud noises are the wailing when you mess up.Warren Buffet, who was intimately familiar with Graham's teachings, observed that it is preferable to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. IOW, you don't need the formulas to be precise, only to keep you out of trouble. This is hard to accept in this age of computerization of everything, where we have come to expect a program, formula or checklist to be objective, precise, resulting in The Right Answer [tm], "buy at $14.38!"My reading of Graham's warning is not that the formula is wrong, or should not be used, but that projections often don't come to pass, and even when they do, the value represented in the answer does not come to pass in the price.Relying on projections into the future is always fraught with difficulties, uncertainties, doubt and fear.

2. Chapter 15: Stock Selection for the Enterprising InvestorThe sixteen criteria mentioned in those chapters are designed to verify all aspects of a stock before investment. http://seekingalpha.co... lists all sixteen criteria, and gives step-by-step instructions on how to find stocks that meet them.Thank you for your comment.


2. It makes no allowance for a Margin of Safety in terms of Assets; only Earnings.




In his 1984 speech "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville", he says:"In this group of successful investors that I want to consider, there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham.... They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies ... I should add that in the records we’ve looked at so far, through- out this whole period there was practically no duplication in these portfolios."Also, in the "Legacy of Benjamin Graham" video released by the Heilbrunn Center, Buffett explains that Graham was focussed on refining a method that ordinary investors - without specialized knowledge or access - could apply to achieve the same results as himself.Regarding the possibility that Buffett may tout Graham without following him, given below is part of the conclusion from the study "The Evolution of the Idea of Value Investing: From Benjamin Graham to Warren Buffett" by Robert F. Bierig, Duke University:"A [casual] observer of Buffett today would find it difficult to see the Ben Graham influence in many of his activities. However, that influence remains at the core of Buffett’s investment model. Buffett continues to think about stocks as fractional ownership interests in underlying businesses, he continues to operate under the assumption that there is a distinction between price and value, and he continues to search for the largest discrepancy between those two items. In other words, he continues to be a value investor."The difference between Graham and Buffett is simply that of principle and application. All of Graham's students follow the same principles, they just apply them in their own way. Buffett is simply the most visible of them because he's the wealthiest. But large portfolios are simply not a priority to some people.
Graham himself said in 1976:"About six years later, we decided to liquidate Graham-Newman Corporation-to end it primarily because the succession of management had not been satisfactorily established. We felt we had nothing special to look forward to that interested us. We could have built up an enormous business had we wanted to, but we limited ourselves to a maximum of $15 million of capital-only a drop in the bucket these days. The question of whether we could earn the maximum percentage per year was what interested us. It was not the question of total sums, but annual rates of return that we were able to accomplish."



Not unreliable. All valuation purposes are designed to give the user an approximation of value. There is no such thing as a concrete, absolute method for valuation. Investing is an art as well as science.The point is that Graham's intention was not to say "I'm just writing this formula for illustration purposes" and forget about it, it's his disclaimer from back in the day saying that valuation should be used with caution instead of blindly applying.If Graham just wanted to use it as an example with no intention of using, why would he bother to research how it works, the effects, and the results?Use with caution is what he is saying, not, don't use it at all.Anyways, thanks for the discussion.

2. Chapter 15: Stock Selection for the Enterprising InvestorThe sixteen criteria mentioned in those chapters are designed to verify all aspects of a stock before investment. http://seekingalpha.co... lists all sixteen criteria, and gives step-by-step instructions on how to find stocks that meet them.Thank you for your comment.

You even highlighted that Graham said to it as an approximation and range.




He strongly recommends the formulas in the Stock Selection chapters: http://seekingalpha.co...Thank you!


Think there is some serious incorrect assumptions here. The most important topic is not the formula being used incorrectly (which it isnt), it's that valuation is an art and should always be taken as a range. That is what Graham is saying. Not the formula being incorrect.

The phrase "we do not suggest that this formula gives the true value of a growth stock" is from the Foot Note.All 3 are quite unambiguous.


The intent was not to prove anyone wrong anyway.But vague definitions are dangerous territory. Success, Failure, Profits, Losses and Bankruptcy are all terms that need not be precisely defined.



