American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q3 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 1)

| About: AGNC Investment (AGNC)

Focus of Article:

The focus of this article is to provide a detailed projection of American Capital Agency Corp.'s (NASDAQ:AGNC) third quarter of 2013 income statement including a net income per share calculation. Prior to results being provided to the public in late October (via its quarterly press release), I would like to analyze AGNC's third quarter of 2013 income statement and provide readers a general direction on how I feel this recent quarter has panned out.

Due to the length of the material covered in this article, I feel it is necessary to break AGNC's third quarter of 2013 income statement projection into three parts. This article will be broken-down by the following categories within the income statement:

A) Net Income (Including Per Share Calculation) (PARTS 1, 2)

B) Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) (OCI/(OCL)) (PART 3)

C) Comprehensive Income (Loss) (A + B Combined) (PART 3)

In a future article, I will project AGNC's book value ('BV') as of 9/30/2013.

Author's Note: This three-part article is a very detailed look at AGNC's income statement. I perform this detailed analysis for readers who anticipate/want such an analysis performed each quarter. For readers who just want the summarized account projections, I would suggest to just look at the bold headers below and/or read the "Conclusions Drawn" section at the bottom of each part of the article.

Predicting a company's accounting figures within the mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) sector are usually more difficult when compared to other sectors due to the various hedging and asset portfolio strategies that are implemented by management each quarter. As such, there are several assumptions used when performing such an analysis. AGNC's actual reported values may differ materially from my projected values within this article due to unforeseen circumstances. This includes a deviation from the typical business strategies by management in a specific quarter when compared to past quarters. Readers should be aware as such all projections within this article are my personal estimates and should not solely be used for any investor's buying or selling decisions. All actual reported figures that are above my ranges within this article will be deemed a positive sign in my judgment. All actual reported figures that are below my ranges within this article will be deemed a negative sign in my judgment. Unless otherwise noted, all figures below are for the "three- month ended" (quarterly) time frame.

A) Net Income:

- Net Income Estimate of $330 Million; Range $80 - $580 Million

- Net Income of $0.84 Per Share (Excluding OCI/(OCL)); Range $0.20 - $1.48 Per Share

- Confidence Within Range = Moderate to High

- See Red Reference "A" in Table 1 Below Next to the September 30, 2013 Column

Let us first look at AGNC's quarterly income statements (ACTUAL) for the trailing twelve months going back to the third quarter of 2012 and my projection for the third quarter of 2013 (ESTIMATE). This information is provided via Table 1 below. The income statement (ACTUAL) figures are derived from AGNC's quarterly SEC submissions via its 10-Q or 10-K where applicable.

Table 1 - AGNC Quarterly Income Statement and Net Income Per Share Projection


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Table 1 is the main source of summarized data regarding AGNC's net income. As such, all material accounts within Table 1 above will be separately analyzed and discussed in corresponding order to the boxed blue references next to the September 30, 2013 column.

Using Table 1 as a reference, PART 1 of this article will include an analysis of the following income statement accounts: 1) interest income; 2) interest expense; and 3) gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net.

PART 2 of this article will include an analysis of the following income statement accounts: 4) gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net and 5) management fees.

1) Interest Income:

- Estimate of $525 Million; Range $475 - $575 Million

- Confidence Within Range = High

- See Boxed Blue Reference "1" in Table 1 Above and Table 2 Below Next to the September 30, 2013 Column

AGNC's interest income is comprised of the following two sub-accounts: a) cash interest income and b) premium amortization. I show my projection for these two figures via Table 2 below. Some past (ACTUAL) figures within Table 2 are derived from either AGNC's quarterly investor presentation slides or SEC submissions via its 10-Q or 10-K where applicable (or a combination of both). This excludes all recalculated and ratio figures. As such, there will not be an identical sheet AGNC provides that matches the data I have prepared in Table 2 below. I have gathered specific information derived from multiple tables/charts for a more clear analysis of the cash interest income and premium amortization accounts.

Table 2 - AGNC Quarterly Interest Income Projection


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Two assumptions should be noted within Table 2 when projecting AGNC's third quarter of 2013 cash interest income figure.

First, I am projecting AGNC's "average agency securities, at cost" (see red reference "B" in Table 1 above) to increase $1.2 billion when compared to the second quarter of 2013. In regards to the third quarter of 2013, many analysts have anticipated most companies within the mREIT sector will continue to deleverage asset portfolios to minimize valuation losses due to the potential of continued mortgage-backed security ('MBS') price declines throughout the quarter. However, AGNC had a somewhat unique MBS portfolio structure as of 6/30/2013. AGNC had a total portfolio leverage ratio factor of 8.5x equity when including its regular MBS and its off-balance sheet "to-be-announced" ('TBA') MBS and forward settling agency securities. AGNC had a total regular portfolio leverage ratio factor of 7.0x equity when excluding its TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities. As such, AGNC's current quarter transactions may differ when compared to its peers because of the off-balance sheet future assets. It should be also noted AGNC's TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities can be "re-rolled" to a future timeframe. Therefore, some could argue the total leverage ratio factor of 8.5x equity is somewhat deceiving.

As will be further discussed in PART 2 of this article, I am making the assumption AGNC has "converted" a material portion of its TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities due to the specific nature of these derivative instruments. I am projecting AGNC's average agency securities for the third quarter of 2013 will slightly increase due to the conversion of its TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities (off balance sheet) to regular MBS (on balance sheet). As of 6/30/2013, AGNC still had a net long $14.5 billion fair value position within its TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities. The increase in average agency securities for the quarter from the conversion of AGNC's TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities will be partially offset by the regular MBS sales during the quarter. Therefore, I am increasing the average agency securities for the third quarter of 2013 by $1.2 billion to $76.0 billion.

Second, I am projecting a third quarter of 2013 cash interest income yield decrease of 7 basis points when compared to the second quarter of 2013 (3.58% vs. 3.63%). This is due to two factors. The first factor is the conversion of AGNC's TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities to regular MBS (discussed above). The recent trend has been most of AGNC's TBA MBS forward settling agency securities have had lower coupons (yield) when compared to its regular MBS portfolio. This is due to the recent past's low interest rate environment. As such, when converted, a lower-yielding regular MBS is acquired. The second factor is during the second quarter of 2013, AGNC "rebalanced" its proportion of 15 and 30-year fixed-rate agency MBS holdings. When comparing AGNC's MBS portfolio as of 6/30/2013 versus 3/31/2013, its proportion of 15-year fixed-rate agency MBS increased 11% (41% from 30%). As such, AGNC's proportion of 30-year fixed-rate agency MBS decreased 11% (58% from 69%). Typically, the coupon offered on a 15-year fixed-rate agency MBS is slightly lower when compared to a 30-year fixed-rate agency MBS (same methodology as the interest rates between a typical fixed-rate 15 and 30-year mortgage loan generated at the same time). As stated in past AGNC articles, management performed this portfolio rebalancing to help mitigate further MBS valuation losses in a rising interest rate environment (preservation of BV). These two "decreasing-yield" factors will be offset by AGNC selling a modest portion of its lowest-coupon MBS and using the proceeds to purchase higher-coupon MBS offered during most of the third quarter of 2013.

Since I am projecting a slightly higher quarterly average agency security balance of $1.2 billion but a quarterly cash interest income yield decrease of 7 basis points, I am projecting a third quarter of 2013 cash interest income decrease of $13 million when compared to the second quarter of 2013 ($640 million versus $653 million).

The second component of AGNC's interest income figure is its premium amortization. Using Table 2 above as a reference, AGNC's first quarter of 2013 premium amortization yield was - 0.88%. However, AGNC's second quarter of 2013 premium amortization yield decreased 17 basis points to -0.71%. The main reason for this material drop in AGNC's premium amortization yield was the "spike" in overall market rates during the second quarter of 2013. During a rising interest rate environment (which occurred during the second quarter of 2013), a drop in prepayments will occur because a greater proportion of homeowners have mortgages that generally have lower interest rates when compared to the current market. The attractiveness of a mortgage refinance dissipates. As a result, prepayment risk lowers and extension risk increases (generally speaking). As such, the average useful life of AGNC's MBS portfolio "extends" further out into the future. When this type of environment is present, the quarterly premium amortization account decreases (more time to expense amortization costs over the estimated life of the MBS).

I am projecting a premium amortization expense of $105 million for the third quarter of 2013. This equates to a quarterly premium amortization yield increase of 9 basis points to -0.80%. One could argue this yield percentage should be lower (less of a negative figure). However, I want to be somewhat cautious with this yield percentage. During the third quarter of 2013, mortgage interest rates first continued to gradually increase but then rapidly decreased over the last two weeks of the quarter. Therefore, the likelihood of most mortgages being refinanced first continued to decrease but then rapidly increased. As such, a lower overall constant prepayment rate ('CPR') on AGNC's MBS portfolio occurred during most of the quarter. However, during the last two weeks of the third quarter of 2013, AGNC's CPR reversed course, which caused prepayment risk to modestly increase. Thus, I felt a slight increase in AGNC's premium amortization expense is warranted.

From all the data and analysis above, I am projecting an overall third quarter of 2013 premium amortization expense increase of $7 million when compared to the second quarter of 2013 ($105 million versus $98 million).

When my projection for AGNC's cash interest income and premium amortization expense are combined, I am projecting a third quarter of 2013 interest income decrease of $20 million when compared to the second quarter of 2013 ($525 million versus $545 million).

2) Interest Expense:

- Estimate of $125 Million; Range $110 - $140 Million

- Confidence Within Range = High

- See Boxed Blue Reference "2" in Table 1 Above and Table 3 Below Next to the September 30, 2013 Column

Now let us take a look at AGNC's interest expense account. I base my projection for this figure via Table 3 below. Some past (ACTUAL) figures within Table 3 are derived from either AGNC's quarterly investor presentation slides or SEC submissions via its 10-Q or 10-K where applicable (or a combination of both). This excludes all recalculated and ratio figures. As such, there will not be an identical sheet AGNC provides that matches the data I have prepared in Table 3 below. I have gathered specific information derived from multiple tables/charts for a more clear analysis of the interest expense account.

Table 3 - AGNC Quarterly Interest Expense Projection


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Recalculating AGNC's quarterly interest expense is pretty straightforward. One takes the quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements (see red reference "K" in Table 3 above) and multiplies this amount by the quarterly average of AGNC's cost of funds rate (see red reference "L" in Table 3 above). Once this figure is calculated (see red reference "(K x L = N)" in Table 3 above), one needs to back out a portion of the quarterly interest expense in relation to AGNC's interest rate swaps (see red reference "(N - J = O)" in Table 3 above). This reclassified amount is represented within AGNC's "gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net" account. As mentioned earlier, this account will be analyzed in PART 2 of the article. The ending calculation is AGNC's quarterly interest expense figure (see red reference "(N - O = P)" in Table 3 above).

Two figures that need to be projected to estimate AGNC's quarterly interest expense are the following: a) average repurchase agreements and b) average cost of funds rate.

First, let us calculate an appropriate quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements. Based on my earlier calculated projection within AGNC's interest income account (see Table 2 above), a quarterly average agency securities balance of $76 billion of MBS will be on AGNC's balance sheet for the third quarter of 2013. I can now project the quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements. If one takes the quarterly "average agency securities, at cost" amount (see red reference "B" in Table 3 above) and divides this figure by the quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements figure (referenced earlier), the calculated "ratio of average agency securities vs. average repurchase agreements" (see red reference "(B / K)" in Table 3 above) factor is between 1.08x - 1.13x during the past four quarters. For the third quarter of 2013, I am using a weighted average ratio factor of 1.10x to project quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements figure. Therefore, by using a quarterly average agency securities balance of $76.0 billion and the weighted average ratio factor of 1.10x, the quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements is calculated to be $69.1 billion (referenced earlier). This is an increase of $3.0 billion when compared to the quarterly average of AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements figure for the second quarter of 2013.

Let us now obtain a suitable quarterly average cost of funds rate (referenced earlier). I am projecting an increase in the average cost of funds rate by 8 basis points to -1.51% for the third quarter of 2013. However, for purposes of this specific account, this 8 basis point increase is rather deceiving. The quarterly increase in the average cost of funds rate by 8 basis points is mainly based on the increase of the average fixed pay rate on AGNC's interest rate swaps. As mentioned earlier, all interest expenses in relation to AGNC's interest rate swaps are reclassified out of this account and into the gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net account. As such, the quarterly average cost of funds rate increase is not in relation to AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements. AGNC's interest expense, in relation to its outstanding repurchase agreements, is based on a small fixed rate percentage and a variable rate percentage based on the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

AGNC's weighted average interest rate on its outstanding repurchase agreements was -0.45% as of 6/30/2013 versus -0.47% as of 3/31/2013. Even though most market interest rates have continued to increase during most of the third quarter of 2013 (until the last two weeks of September 2013 where a sharp reversal occurred), LIBOR continued to slightly decrease throughout the quarter across the 1, 3, 6, and 12-month platforms. Therefore, the variable interest rate percentage on AGNC's repurchase agreements should also slightly decrease during the current quarter. I am making the assumption that the weighted average maturities on AGNC's outstanding repurchase agreements as of 6/30/2013 will remain relatively unchanged throughout the third quarter of 2013 (including all exited and acquired repurchase agreements during the current quarter).

Now that we have determined its average repurchase agreements figure and average cost of funds rate for the quarter, let us calculate AGNC's interest expense for the third quarter of 2013. After a reclassification of $135 million of interest expense in relation to its interest rate swaps, I project AGNC will incur $125 million of interest expense in regards to its outstanding repurchase agreements for the third quarter of 2013. This is a decrease of $6 million when compared to the second quarter of 2013 ($125 million versus $131 million). This is largely due to the slight increase of $3.0 billion to AGNC's quarterly average outstanding repurchase agreements offset by the overall slight decrease in LIBOR throughout the third quarter of 2013. Due to the continued slight decrease in LIBOR throughout the third quarter of 2013, AGNC's interest expense, in relation to its repurchase agreements, should also slightly decrease.

3) Gain (Loss) on Sale of Agency Securities, Net:

- Estimate of $5 Million; Range ($145) - $155 Million

- Confidence Within Range = Moderate

- See Boxed Blue Reference "3" in Table 1 Above and Table 4 Below Next to the September 30, 2013 Column

AGNC's gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net account can be somewhat difficult to accurately project. Only AGNC's management team truly knows how many existing agency securities will be sold during any given quarter (including what proportional share of coupon rates). As such, a few assumptions need to be made.

Side Note: When I research and prepare my analysis regarding AGNC's income statement, I take into consideration the wide array of possibilities that can occur within this account. As such, AGNC's gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net account is directly tied to AGNC's "unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale securities, net" account discussed in PART 3 of this analysis. Therefore, if AGNC's gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net reported amount is above or below my projected figure, the variance is automatically offset in its unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale securities, net account. Since both accounts would offset each other, if my projected gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net amount is lower than the actual results, my projected unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale securities, net amount will automatically be higher by the same exact amount. If this situation occurs, my combined projected figures would be accurately represented regardless. This was exactly what happened in the second quarter of 2013 regarding my projected gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net amount and unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale securities, net amount. When combined, my projections only had a $90 million variance on a combined $2.8 billion balance (97% accuracy) when compared to AGNC's reported amounts for both accounts.

I am making the assumption AGNC will continue its second quarter of 2013 strategy regarding MBS sales. As such, the company will sell some its more matured, higher-coupon MBS while also selling some of its lowest-coupon MBS. AGNC will continue to sell a modest amount of its lowest-coupon MBS in the third quarter of 2013 to mitigate future unrealized losses in a rising interest rate environment. Through past research and analysis, I can conclude AGNC recently increased its lowest-coupon MBS proportion due to the recent extremely low interest rate environment (mainly in the latter half of 2012). Therefore, if AGNC sells a portion of these lowest-coupon MBS in the third quarter of 2013, it will sustain realized valuation losses as interest rates rose throughout most of the quarter. This is due to the fact as interest rates continued to rise in the current quarter (until the last two weeks in September 2013), the overall demand/value of these specific MBS decreased. As such, the MBS sales price will typically be less than the MBS purchase price.

It should be noted that additional losses will be incurred on these MBS sales due to the unamortized premium balances that have yet to be expensed. I state this assumption because if AGNC only recently purchased these lower-coupon MBS within the past several quarters, these agency securities will most likely still have an unamortized premium balance remaining on the books that must be written-off/expensed upon the sale. When these assumptions are put together, this will cause a modest loss within the account for the third quarter of 2013.

However, this loss will be offset to an extent. There is one footnote within AGNC's quarterly SEC submissions (10-Q or 10-K) which is important to mention here. AGNC states the figures within the "proceeds from sale of MBS sold" account includes all cash received during the period plus any receivable for agency securities sold during the period. In other words, all quarterly cash interest income received on quarterly MBS sales are reclassified out of the cash interest income account (previously discussed above) and accounted for within this account. Because of this reclassification, the gain (loss) on sale of agency securities account will always start off with a slightly positive balance before taking into consideration the true gain/loss on the MBS sales.

Now that there is a better understanding what can occur regarding its MBS sales, let us take a look at AGNC's gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net account in detail. I base my projection for this figure via Table 4 below. Some past (ACTUAL) figures within Table 4 are derived from either AGNC's quarterly investor presentation slides or SEC submissions via its 10-Q or 10-K where applicable (or a combination of both). This excludes all recalculated and ratio figures. As such, there will not be an identical sheet AGNC provides that matches the data I have prepared in Table 3 below. I have gathered specific information derived from multiple tables/charts for a more clear analysis of the gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net account.

Table 4 - AGNC Quarterly Gain (Loss) on Sale of Agency Securities, Net Projection


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Side Note Regarding Table 4: If one looks at the "average total assets, fair value > cost basis" balance (see red reference "(Q - B)" in Table 4 above), you will notice an overall decrease from $13.5 billion in the third quarter of 2012 to ($1.8) billion in the fourth quarter of 2012. This was mainly caused by the material increase in AGNC's net long TBA MBS and forward settling agency securities position beginning in the fourth quarter of 2012. Prior to the fourth quarter of 2012, AGNC had a minimal net long TBA position.

I project AGNC's average total assets, fair value > cost basis balance (referenced earlier) will have a deficit of ($5.5) billion for the third quarter of 2013. For the second quarter of 2013, AGNC had a deficit balance of ($7.1) billion. When compared to the second quarter of 2013, the $1.6 billion positive change for the third quarter of 2013 is mainly due to the positive MBS valuation gains that occurred during the last two weeks of the third quarter of 2013 (as will be discussed in PART 2 of this analysis). Since this balance is based on AGNC's "average" cost versus fair market value of its MBS, TBA MBS, and forward settling agency securities during the third quarter of 2013, this balance will not directly tie to any valuation change figures presented on the income statement. Typically, generally accepted accounting principle ('GAAP') valuations are based on a specific date in time (end of each quarter). Table 4 shows these average balances to obtain an accurate average total assets, fair value > cost basis ratio for this specific account.

Side Note: All regular MBS unrealized gains (losses) are excluded from AGNC's net income and are represented in AGNC's "other comprehensive income (loss)" (OCI/OCL) section, which will be discussed in PART 3 of this analysis. All TBA MBS and forward settling agency security gains (losses) are accounted for under the gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net account which will be discussed in PART 2 of this analysis.

Since MBS prices during the third quarter of 2013 modestly decreased and then reversed course and sharply increased, I project AGNC's "avg. total assets at fair value > avg. agency securities at cost" ratio (see red reference "(Q / B)" in Table 4 above) will slightly increase to a factor of 0.94x for the third quarter of 2013. This is a slight improvement from the ratio factor of 0.93x in the second quarter of 2013.

Due to the fact AGNC stated they have sold a modest portion of its lowest-coupon MBS in the second quarter of 2013, I am making the assumption management has continued with this strategy because interest rates continued to rise during most of the third quarter of 2013. As such, I have increased AGNC's "agency MBS sold, at cost" amount (see red reference "R" in Table 4 above) by $7.2 billion. As stated earlier, the more important aspect to take from this account is not the amount of agency securities sold, but whether a gain or loss will generally be accounted for from the quarterly MBS sales. As projected earlier, some of AGNC's lower-coupon quarterly MBS sales will result in minor to modest losses that will be offset by all quarterly cash interest income received on quarterly MBS sales

Finally, to calculate a proper figure regarding this account, I use a "proceeds from agency MBS sold vs. agency MBS sold, at cost" ratio (see red reference "(S / R)" in Table 4 above) to project the amount of gains (losses) that will occur in the third quarter of 2013. I have fractionally lowered this ratio from a factor of 1.001x in the second quarter of 2013 to a factor of 1.000x in the third quarter of 2013. Using the current quarter's ratio factor of 1.000x, I project AGNC's gain (loss) on sale of agency securities, net amount (see red reference "(S - R)" in Table 4 above) will be $5 million for the third quarter of 2013. This is based on $22.300 billion of quarterly "agency MBS sold, at cost" (see red reference "R" in Table 4 above) with "proceeds from agency MBS sold" (see red reference "S" in Table 4 above) of $22.305 billion. As stated earlier, this proceeds amount INCLUDES all cash interest income received on the MBS sales during the current quarter.

Conclusions Drawn (PART 1):

To sum up all the information above, I am projecting AGNC will report the following income statement figures for the third quarter of 2013 (refer to Table 1 at the beginning of the article):

1) Quarterly Interest Income of $525 Million

2) Quarterly Interest Expense of $125 Million

3) Quarterly Gain on Sale of Agency Securities, Net of $5 Million

I am projecting AGNC will report a slightly reduced interest income figure when compared to the prior quarter. When compared to the prior quarter, I am projecting a ($20) million reduction in this account mainly due to the conversion of AGNC's MBS portfolio to a higher percentage of 15-year fixed-rate MBS holdings versus 30-year fixed-rate MBS holdings. As such, a slight decrease in the average quarterly yield will occur.

I am projecting AGNC will also report a slightly reduced interest expense figure when compared to the prior quarter. When compared to the prior quarter, I am projecting a ($6) million reduction in this account due to a slight decrease in LIBOR throughout the third quarter of 2013.

I am projecting AGNC will also report a slightly reduced gain on sale of agency securities figure when compared to the prior quarter. When compared to the prior quarter, I am projecting a ($12) million reduction in this account due to the decrease in MBS prices for a majority of the quarter (up until the last two weeks). This will be offset by the reclassification of all cash interest income received on the MBS sales during the current quarter.

Final Note: PART 1 above is only a PARTIAL analysis of AGNC's income statement for the third quarter of 2013. As such, a "full" conclusion regarding AGNC's income statement will not be provided yet. PART 2 will just pick up where PART 1's analysis ends. PART 2's conclusion will discuss AGNC's projected "gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net" account (including four "sub-accounts") and its "management fees" account. PART 2 will also discuss AGNC's projected net income and earnings per share ('EPS') amounts (will be available to readers next week). PART 3's conclusion will discuss AGNC's projected "OCI/(OCL)" account and "comprehensive income (loss)" account. PART 3 will also summarize AGNC's entire statement of comprehensive income and major points throughout the three parts of the article (will be available to readers in roughly two weeks).

This will be followed by a detailed analysis on AGNC's BV as of 9/30/2013 (will be available to readers prior to the company's third quarter of 2013 press release in late October).

Disclosure: I am long AGNC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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