Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today's Values
Michael David White
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The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.
Tuesday's new number from the index showed a gain of just under .5% for the month of September, but the index remains 30% below the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.
A more comprehensive analysis of the 10-city index based upon a 120 years of data shows current values off 36% and a comparatively modest 20% fall ahead.
Review four charts and key data based upon major real estate price indexes at “Property Price Index”.
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Michael David White has spent eighteen years as both a lender and owner / investor in real estate. His day job is originating residential mortgages. He wants to grow up to be a writer.