Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today's Values

Nov. 26, 2009 6:04 AM ETITB, XHB, FMCC, FNMA87 Comments
Michael David White profile picture
Michael David White
The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.
Tuesday's new number from the index showed a gain of just under .5% for the month of September, but the index remains 30% below the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.
A more comprehensive analysis of the 10-city index based upon a 120 years of data shows current values off 36% and a comparatively modest 20% fall ahead.
Review four charts and key data based upon major real estate price indexes at “Property Price Index”.

This article was written by

Michael David White profile picture
Michael David White has spent eighteen years as both a lender and owner / investor in real estate. His day job is originating residential mortgages. He wants to grow up to be a writer.

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