Shipping Change Means The Earnings Miss Is Probably Massive

| About:, Inc. (AMZN)

We already knew that (NASDAQ:AMZN) was penny pinching hard by not making a proper presentation for its new Kindle Fire tablets. Bill Maurer also found out that has been aggressively slowing down content purchases. And we already knew that the new Kindle Fire HDX was selling poorly.

But today, something else happened which confirms must be under tremendous earnings pressure: is raising the minimum threshold to get free shipping. It's moving this threshold from $25 to $35. This is's press release:

Changes to Amazon Free Shipping

These changes relate specifically to FREE Super Saver Shipping. All other services remain unchanged.

Amazon's minimum order size for free shipping has changed to $35. This is the first time in more than a decade that Amazon has altered the minimum order for free shipping in the US. During that time, we have expanded free shipping selection by millions of items across all 40 product categories. Look for "FREE Shipping" on product pages to discover eligible items.

Millions of Amazon customers have already made the choice of faster shipping by becoming Amazon Prime members. Prime includes unlimited Free Two-Day Shipping, with no minimum order size, on more than 15 million items, as well as unlimited streaming of over 41,000 movies and TV episodes through Prime Instant Video and access to over 350,000 books to borrow through the Kindle Owners' Lending Library. The service is so popular that more than a year ago we began shipping more items with Prime than with free shipping. Click here to start a 30-day free trial of Amazon Prime.

Free shipping has long been a cornerstone of's growth strategy. Moving this threshold is a borderline desperate measure. A measure which would only be taken if internally was looking at some seriously ugly numbers. Yet took this measure.


There are two main consequences we can draw from this move:

  • One is that is about to report earnings which will be worse than expected. And the expected number is already a loss, to begin with;
  • The second is that if free shipping was a great growth driver, increasing the threshold will be a great growth headwind. And with such a headwind impacting at the same time revenues are already slowing down materially and the Kindle Fire HDX is stumbling, it will amplify the effect.

One should remember that free shipping is a central tenet of's strategy to grow its business. A central tenet repeated often in its communications. For instance, every 10-Q and 10-K includes these lines:

We expect our net cost of shipping to continue to increase to the extent our customers accept and use our shipping offers at an increasing rate, our product mix shifts to the electronics and other general merchandise category, we reduce shipping rates, we use more expensive shipping methods, and we offer additional services. We seek to mitigate costs of shipping over time in part through achieving higher sales volumes, optimizing placement of fulfillment centers, negotiating better terms with our suppliers, and achieving better operating efficiencies. We believe that offering low prices to our customers is fundamental to our future success, and one way we offer lower prices is through shipping offers.

Free shipping is thus a central tenet of's growth strategy. And here, what is doing is backtracking on this central tenet. It would not do so lightly, it's a significant change, so its decision must be informed by something the market is not yet seeing - that is, earnings are so ugly that they demand action, even at the risk of maiming growth or provoking customer backlash.

This is even more significant when revenue growth has already been on a sustained deceleration and with this move the deceleration promises to become even more pronounced.

AMZN Revenue Quarterly YoY Growth Chart
(Click to enlarge)

AMZN Revenue Quarterly YoY Growth data by YCharts

Conclusion moving the free shipping threshold from $25 to $35 is another sign that earnings must be ugly. While the move might alleviate some shipping cost pressure over the next few quarters, it will also pressure its already slower growth rates, to the point where these might approach eBay's (NASDAQ:EBAY) (the spread will be just 4% in Q3 2013 and closing fast).

Disclosure: I am short AMZN. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

About this article:

Author payment: $35 + $0.01/page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.
Want to share your opinion on this article? Add a comment.
Disagree with this article? .
To report a factual error in this article, click here