Whilst we are bullish on equities, high yield currencies, and commodities and bearish on US treasuries, we are still somewhat uncomfortable and need to see bullish / bearish confirmation in the following securities before we sleep easy at night:
- Commodities - Crude above 82
- Equities - the Value Line above 2230
- Currencies - DBV above 24
- Treasuries - TLT below 93
Notice what happened on October 20th, Crude, the Value Line, and High Yield currencies (NYSE:DBV) all peaked within a couple of days of each other. If we get multi-week highs in Crude, the Value Line and DBV, then it is a foregone conclusion that US Treasuries will fall into the abyss. Of course, not being ones to sit on the fence, we think this will happen... given the explosive rally in Gold and Silver!
Disclosure: Long DBC, SLV, VTI, DBV