Cramer's Mad Money - Polaris Is Eating Arctic Cat's Lunch (10/28/13)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday October 28.

Polaris (NYSE:PII) versus Arctic Cat (NASDAQ:ACAT). Other stocks mentioned: Raytheon (NYSE:RTN), Kandi (NASDAQ:KNDI)

How can two snowmobile stocks perform so differently from each other? It might not be fair to characterize Polaris (PII) as a snowmobile stock, since it has expanded beyond snowmobiles, which comprise 9% of its revenues compared to 50% for competitor, Arctic Cat (ACAT). PII beat earnings by 3 cents with revenues that increased 25% and it raised guidance. ACAT reported a hideous 26 cent miss, one of the worst earnings misses of the season, with revenues down 15%. It reported a 5% increase in snowmobile sales, but Polaris' sales in all of its categories increased by double digits, and ACAT's apparel sales declined. ACAT complained that Europe was weak, while PII said Europe is strong. ACAT needed to rely on promotions to attract customers, but in the end, the promotions mainly hurt the company's gross margins and did not secure market share. "It is obvious that Polaris is eating Arctic Cat's lunch," said Cramer. PII has delivered a 54% gain since Cramer recommended it a year ago.

Cramer took some calls:

Raytheon (RTN) reported a dynamite quarter. "Don't get off that horse." Cramer would not trim a position in RTN, even at its 52 week high.

Kandi (KNDI): Cramer thinks Chinese stocks are too hard to value.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Kimberly Clark (NYSE:KMB), Kellogg (NYSE:K), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY), Synta (SNTA), Goodrich Petroleum (NYSEMKT:GDP), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL)

Apple (AAPL) rose significantly after earnings, but it should have been up higher. One reason that it didn't rise more dramatically is that, just prior to earnings, expectations had risen after a long period of negativity about Apple. Cramer thinks Apple is still a buy, even though it rallied after hours, because its product line is strong and its gross margins improved 37%. There is speculation about what Apple will do with its generous cash, but this uncertainty is a quality problem.

Consumer goods stocks like Hershey (HSY), Clorox (CLX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Kellogg (K) rallied given the perceived weakness of the economy. Most of the blame for this crisis in confidence lies squarely at the feet of Washington, said Cramer. Merck (MRK) seemed to have delivered a nice earnings beat, but this was because of cost cutting rather than execution. Bristol Myers (BMY) is now looking more like a high growth biotech than a defensive bond equivalent pharma. BMY. Cramer thinks expectations are too high for MRK and too low for BMY.

Cramer took some calls:

Synta (SNTA) is playing FDA roulette and has only one drug. Cramer doesn't like the odds.

Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) is red hot and has moved too much. Cramer prefers Noble Energy (NBL) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC).

Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL) versus Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO)

Both Lumber Liquidators (LL) and Tractor Supply (TSCO) have been strong performers, but does one stock have an edge over the other? Cramer measured both by 10 criteria.

1. Multi-year growth visibility: TSCO's same store sales were up 7%, while LL's rose 17%. The latter has more room to expand and can double its store count. TSCO is growing by 8%, but LL is seeing a 12% compound annual growth rate. LL scores a 10 on this metric, and TSCO, 7.

2. Total addressable market: Both companies have niche markets. LL has 14% market share, and with store expansion, that number may grow to 20%. Cramer gives LL a 9 and TSCO, 8.

3. Competition: Both TSCO and LL have unique merchandise, and Cramer rates both with a score of 9.

4. Return capital to shareholders: TSCO has a dividend of 1% and a modest buyback. LL has no dividend and a small buyback. TSCO earns a 3, LL, 0.

5. International expansion: Both companies have plenty of room to grow in the U.S., but could go global if they wanted to. Cramer rates both with 6.

6. Balance sheet: TSCO has a pretty clean balance sheet with small debt and strong cash flow. LL has plenty of cash and no debt. TSCO: 9, LL, 10.

7. Are the stocks expensive in the outyears?: TSCO has risen 63% for the year, sells at a multiple of 23 with a 17% growth rate. LL has gained 115% year to date, has a multiple of 27 and a 30% growth rate. TSCO: 8, LL:10.

8. Management: LL has an edge over TSCO, because TSCO has a brand new CEO and is in "wait and see" mode. TSCO: 8 LL: 9

9. Cyclicality: Since LL is levered to housing, a volatile area of the economy, Cramer gives LL a 6 and TSCO an 8.

10. Gross Margins: LL's gross margins rose 370 basis points while LL's were up 90 points. LL: 10. TSCO: 8

Lumber Liquidators, with a score of 78, has somewhat of an edge over Tractor Supply, which scored 73.


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