Results from David Fish's Dividend Challengers Index constituents listed as of market closing prices October 26 were compared to analyst mean target price projections one year hence. The resulting chart from that data shown below displayed four stocks exhibiting 14.7% to nearly 26.5% price upsides. StoneMor Partners LP (NYSE:STON), a Levittown, PA based death services provider, with 14.68% showed the lowest upside of those four. Holly Energy Partners LP (NYSE:HEP), the Dallas based oil & gas pipeline firm from the basic materials sector, with 17.1% showed the third best upside. Crestwood Midstream, LP (NYSE:CMLP), the Houston based oil & gas pipeline firm, with 21.5% showed the nearly best upside. EV Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ:EVEP-OLD), a Houston based oil & gas drilling & exploration firm, exhibited a 15.61% price upside to lead the index. Six additional challenger dogs showed 6.5% to 12% upsides.
The chart above used one-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare four Challengers Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results for the Challengers Index as one of fourteen in a series of index-specific articles devoted to dividend yield and price upside results. Prompted by Seeking Alpha reader requests, the series has supplied results for these stock indices: Dow 30; Barron's 15 Gems; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; Nasdaq 100; NYSE International 100; Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29; Russell 2000.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below are the Arnold Dividend Challengers Index top dog selections for October, disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Measured Challengers Index Stocks by Yield
David Fish's September Challengers list (from here) contained stocks distinguished by having paid increasing dividends for 5 to 9 straight years. Dividend challenger stocks listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of October 26 to reveal the top ten. Price and dividend data was sourced from Yahoo.com.
Ten challenger dogs posting the biggest projected October dividend yields included firms representing just three of nine market sectors. The top two stocks, Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE:NMM), and StoneMor Partners LP, were the services sector representatives. The lone financial firm, Triangle Capital Corp. (NYSE:TCAP) placed eighth.
Seven basic materials companies took slots three through seven, nine, and ten to complete the top ten challengers dogs list: Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE:VNR); EV Energy Partners LP; NuStar GP Holdings LLC (NYSE:NSH); Crestwood Midstream Partners LP; AmeriGas Partners LP (NYSE:APU); Enbridge Energy Partners LP (NYSE:EEP); Exterran Partners LP (EXLP).
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten Dividend Challenger dogs by yield as of market close 10/26/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share price of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): Challengers Ran With Bulls as Dow Dogs Dithered
Dividend challengers aggregate single share price of the ten Challengers soared 19% since September. Dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of those top ten dogs dropped 14% for that period.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped just 0.6% since September, while aggregate single share price swooned 11%, ending a brief bullish track. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten shrank. The overhang was $198 or 53% in June, then shrunk to $153 or 41% in July, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September, then shrank down to $111 or 30% for October.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to sniff out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall St. Wizards Wrest A 13% Net Gain from Top 20 Dividend Challengers Index Dogs By 2014
Top twenty dogs from David Fish's Dividend Challengers index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of October 26, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 5.5% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group ($1k each) while aggregate single share price was projected to increase 7% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 10 Dividend Challenger Dogs to Net 10.6% to 32.9% By October 2014
Five of the ten top dividend yielding challenger dogs were verified as being among the ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for challengers as graded by Wall St. wizards is 50% accurate.
The ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
EV Energy Partners LP netted $328.58 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP netted $269.72, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.
StoneMor Partners LP netted $218.53 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.
Holly Energy Partners LP netted $212.00 based on estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 27% less than the market as a whole.
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) netted $162.00 based on a mean target price estimate from fifteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 21% less than the market as a whole.
Transmontaigne Partners (NYSE:TLP) netted $156.67, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.
Vanguard Natural Resources LLC netted $154.68 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% more than the market as a whole.
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM) netted $137.73 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.
Exterran Partners LP netted $131.94 based on a mean target price estimate from seven analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 27% more than the market as a whole.
El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE:EPB) netted $106.09 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 81% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 18.8% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.
The above net gain estimates did not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.