It’s been a great year as we head into the final few trading sessions. The past several weeks the indexes have not done much of anything, which is why we are now in cash.
I feel as though the market is about to change direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks. I feel this way for several reasons:
- NYSE, Dow Jones, S&P500 are all drifting higher into resistance levels on the 10 day, 60 minute charts. Light volume tends to favor higher price, hence the reason for the holiday rally.
- Broad market momentum waves are topping.
- These same indexes are trading at resistance levels from early 2008.
- Money flow is indicating large institutions have been big sellers over the past 3 weeks.
- The US economy, I think, is worse than most want to think.
So take a look at these 10 day charts which clearly show resistance and support trend lines. Each, if broken, will lead to a sharp decline. I used ETFs as substitutes for the indexes.
Stocks have started to decouple for the US dollar in recent days so I am not focusing much on what effect the dollar will have on the above indexes.
That being said, the US dollar (UUP etf fund) is at a pivotal point. It’s either going to bounce off the trend line support level (blue line) and send gold back down to test the previous low, or break down through the support trend line. A falling dollar will give gold some power to muscle its way back up to the next short term support level.
Dollar and Gold Trends
Tuesday we said gold stocks and silver prices would move higher. I consider gold stocks and silver my leading indicators for the price of gold. Today (Wednesday Dec 23rd), gold stocks and silver shot higher – out-performing gold by 7:1, which is very bullish for gold.
Crude oil had a large rally Wednesday, sending the USO oil fund surging 3.5%, confirming a bounce off our support level 2 weeks ago. It could be warming up for another rally.
Natural gas opened lower but put in a strong session as it trended up all day. This also looks very strong and if prices break out and follow through next week, natural gas could be making a real rally for once.
This is a short trading week with Thursday only a half trading session and Friday being closed for Christmas/Holidays. We will not have any low risk setups this week and because we are sitting in cash, let’s take this time to enjoy our family, friends and pets.
Disclosure: I currently do not own any of the funds listed in this article.