Brian Wesbury's 'Mr. Sunshine' Predictions

by: The Good News Economist

Brian Wesbury is one of the more optimistic professional economists out there. He's proud of being dubbed "Mr. Sunshine." Wesbury is chief economist at First Trust Advisors of Chicago and his assessments on the economy are quite in line with what you read here at the Good News Economist day after day. He even has a new book entitled "It's Not As Bad As You Think."

His current unpopular predictions: 1. Like the Good News Economist blog, Wesbury predicts economic growth of 5% or more in Q4 of this year.

2. His job growth predictions mirror our prediction of a return to net job growth in December with unemployment falling below 8.5% by the end of 2010.

3. On housing he is bullish as well. He says things are improving so fast that by the third quarter of 2010, there will likely be a hot seller's market in the housing segment of the economy.

4. He also sees (like us) retail sales that are now up at an annualized rate of 7% in the last six months of the year.

5. He points to manufacturing output that is up 8% and inventories that are now extremely low. The meaning? Manufacturing has fallen behind and firms have likely waited too long to try to catch up with demand. The result? Manufacturing activity will accelerate quite quickly in coming months in order to restock inventories and catch up with demand.

6. And finally he asserts that tight credit condition claims are overblown considering the tremendous money supply. "Money is like a flood" claims Wesbury. It will find its own level and with so much liquidity in the system, the flood will find its way into the economy one way or the other. Tighter credit policy is similar to other recessions, and those non-accommodating stances did not stop those recoveries.

Wesbury summarizes, "I'm an optimist on the economy and its long history shows I'm usually right."