Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

| About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q4 earnings before the market open on Friday, January 22 with a conference call scheduled for 9 am ET.


Analysts are looking for a loss of (32c) on revenue of $764.39M. The consensus range is (48c)-(9c) for EPS, and revenue of $684.8M-$822.85M, according to First Call. In October, the company said it will discontinue the production of Buell motorcycles and narrowed its FY09 shipments guidance to 222,000-227,000, including 35,000-40,000 during Q4. The company announced plans in January to close one of its two York, PA factories and lay off about 950 employees. As for the quarter, most analysts expect the company to report a loss.

Analyst Views

William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia believes Harley-Davidson will report a nearly 50% decrease in motorcycle shipments during the quarter and says Harley is "at least several quarters away" from achieving positive retail sales trends in the U.S. Goldman Sachs says checks have indicated that bike sales are down 35%-40% year over year for the quarter. UBS believes retail sales will be down in the 20%-plus range, but could report upside to Q4 margins. Harley-Davidson shares rose 13% during the quarter.