Ten Predictions for After the Upcoming Mid-Term Elections

by: David Neubert

After the US mid-term election in November, the following things will change:
(where appropriate I've tried include how I am playing, or might play these themes)

1. Oil/energy rices will go back up. (COP, OXY, CVX, STO, BP)

2. Inflation will start to be in the news again. (GLD, NEM, GG, GFI)

3. Fears of foreigners leaving the US treasury market will start up again. Long term treasuries yields will rise again.

4. US fears of China will increase as that country takes over the leading role in containing North Korea. Asian currencies and shares rally after an initial panic. (NYSEARCA:VPL)

5. Holiday retail sales will start to take the business headlines. Interest in retail and online advertising shares will increase. (AMZN, YHOO, GOOG, EBAY, IACI)

6. The Bush administration will start to push for an exit strategy in Iraq.

7. If the conventional wisdom going into election day is that the Democrats take the house, the market will go down into that news then rally days after as people start to talk about how good a split government is for the economy.

8. Wall Street bonuses will be huge mainly in the investment banking, Mergers and Acquisitions and Private Equity areas (holding Manhattan real estate).

9. There will be some kind of cold weather. Natural Gas and fuel oil prices will rise again based on the surprise that winter is back.

10. The interest in outlawing online gambling in the US will wane as congress or states figure out a way to tax and regulate it.

Disclosure: I own Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) as part of a buy/write. I own IAC Interactive (IACI). I own oil companies COP, OXY, CVX, STO and BP. I continue to bet on rising long term interest rates in the US through a short futures positions (and options positions that benefit from an increase in rates) on US Treasuries 10-year and long (30-year) maturities. I am long Japanese Yen. (vs. USD). I own VPL, GLD, NEM, GG and GFI.

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