Greece and a Stronger U.S. Dollar

Includes: ERO, GRDOW, UDN, UUP
by: Chris Damas

Being a Greek and having lived as a teenager in Greece -- and having researched all aspects of its capital markets and invested in top Greek issuers during 2001 to 2002 -- I am no stranger to its problems.

Greece only did well when it was supported by the EU. The country lived for years off the stabilization payments. loans and infrastructure grants provided by the EU.

Now, new entrants such as Poland and Cyprus are now in line for the payments Greece used to receive.

The fact is, over the past couple of decades, Greece has chronically borrowed too much and hidden most of the economy in terms of tax collection. What's more, the country inherited massive social problems when the collapses of Russia and Yugoslavia brought many illegal immigrants, with associated higher social costs.

The problem with inflating away the huge US dollar debt and depreciating the USD is the Euro is not helping.

Europe, Japan, the UK... all have debt problems and their currencies are reflecting that.

I´m afraid the higher USD is going to depress commodities, reduce inflation and increase taxation, all at the expense of corporate profits.

We are invested in non-commodity, yield oriented securities of quality issuers that provide necessary services even in a low growth scenario.

Yesterday we actually were up nicely on BCE (NYSE:BCE), a major provider of telecommunications services in Canada, and took profits near the high for the day. It yields over 6% and raised its guidence for 2010 on the Q4 conference call.

The famous speculator, Jesse Livermore, used to go to Florida to await market crashes. Currently, I am assessing local conditions and peforming basic field and agriculture research in the interior of Colombia. Please, no jokes.

Colombia is one of those emerging economies everyone likes to talk about now.

Strap on your seat belt and assume the crash position if you continue to believe commodities are going higher very soon.

Disclosure: REIT´s, Preferreds shares, special situations

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