Nevada Housing: More Reasons for Pessimism

Feb. 22, 2010 5:26 AM ETXHB, RWX, IYR15 Comments
Randy Sharrow profile picture
Randy Sharrow

I've been arguing (correctly, I might add) with Nevada housing optimists for years, explaining that we would undergo the largest housing / economic bust in history, but the vast majority were reluctant to pull their heads out; they would blindly regurgitate ignorant (positive) data snippets overheard on the radio, news or by their local neighborhood realtor - completely oblivious to economic reality and bent on hearing / believing that a fairytail future was once again possible for Nevada (Las Vegas in particular).

Even with data to back it up, many still try to refute the obvious, but allow me to try once again...

Let's put it this way: with > 80% of Las Vegas mortgage holders now upside down (see here), the second highest unemployment rate in the nation (> 13% official rate - see here), tourism, gaming and tax receipts in a complete free fall, and foreclosures rising, I see no end in sight (till around 2012 /13) for our local housing collapse...

Additionally, the Fed is the ONLY buyer of mortgage debt these days and with the massive monetary printing taking place, buyers of US government debt (mostly foreign governments like China, Japan, etc) will DEMAND higher rates - leading to higher mortgage rates and lower affordability in the coming years...

Though I did (back in December 2008) articulate that housing sales numbers would increase, it's a false flag and prices will still continue to fall as 1) credit continues to tighten, 2) unemployment increases, 3) Alt A mortgage resets begin to pick up steam (through 2012), 4) uptick in strategic foreclosures (those who can afford to pay, but still walk away), and 5) banks begin to unload the tens of thousands of foreclosed homes that are being held off the market.

With all that digested, lets look at some new housing charts for Nevada:

US vs. Nevada Home Prices

Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno Median Price Data

Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno Median Price Per Square Foot

Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno % Sold at a Loss

Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno- Foreclosure Sales as % of Market

One More: Las Vegas - Sales Price Per Square Foot

Approaching my $60 per SF price forecast initially made in 2008 (see here).

This article was written by

Randy Sharrow profile picture
I’m 42 years old, retired from the USAF, and I currently manage a Telecommunication organization. I have been writing about our bubble economy since late 2005 and many of today’s economic events were actually anticipated and warned of. You should know that the U.S. "Housing Bubble" was only the latest symptom of much larger fundamental economic imbalances that have been building for decades - due to poor monetary and policymaking decisions. With that, I personally feel a major economic transformation is currently taking place right before our eyes and the prosperous “good life” that we have enjoyed for many decades here in the US is changing forever. Though I don’t think it’s relevant to the issues at hand, as very few of our PhD “economic experts” were able to forewarn us of this significant economic downturn, I have unrelated Telecom Eng. & Eng. Mgnt. Degrees, but have spent many thousands of hours studying economic issues – providing me with (what I believe to be) a strong understanding of “the big picture.”

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