Trading Week Outlook: April 25-30, 2010

|
Includes: AUNZ, DIA, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY, QQQ, SPY, UDN, UUP
by: All Things Forex

The monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will take the center stage in the week ahead, as traders will focus on the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the statement that will follow it, for clues of future changes in the existing monetary policy of keeping rates low for an “extended period”.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

Sunday, Apr. 25 will start the trading session with the Japanese CSPI- Corporate Services Price Index, a measure of inflation experienced by corporations when purchasing services, at 7:50 pm, ET.

Monday, Apr. 26 will bring only one notable economic report--the Australian PPI, Producers Price Index, the main measure of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation, scheduled at 9:30 pm, ET.

Tuesday, Apr. 27 will begin with the Swiss Consumption Indicator of consumer spending, at 2:00 am, ET, along with the German GfK Group Consumer Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions, consumer sentiment and expectations in the euro-zone’s largest economy, also at 2:00 am, ET.

News from the U.K. will bring the British Bankers Association Mortgage Approvals Report, a leading indicator of the U.K. housing market measuring the number of issued home loans, at 4:30 am, ET.

Another notable report from the U.K. will follow with the release of the CBI- Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey, a leading indicator of consumer spending measuring sales made by retailers and wholesalers, at 6:00 am, ET.

The U.S. economic data will start with the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index of the monthly changes in the average price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9:00 am, ET.

The first spotlight event of the week- the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, will come at 10:00 am, ET, along with the Richmond Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve district, also at 10:00 am, ET.

The U.S. consumer confidence for April is expected to improve with a reading of 54 compared with 52.5 in March.

The day will conclude with a series of notable economic reports, beginning with the Japanese Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, at 7:50 pm, ET.

One of the major spotlight events of the week will follow with the release of the Australian CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Rising inflationary pressures in Australia faster than the previous 0.5% q/q increase could mean further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and could keep the AUD supported.

The day will end with the New Zealand Business Confidence Survey of the sentiment and outlook of businesses on current and future economic conditions, at 11:00 pm, ET.

Wednesday, Apr. 28 will start with the preliminary estimate of the German CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the euro-zone’s largest economy, expected around 2:00 am, ET.

The U.S economic reports will begin with the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

The most important spotlight event of the week- the U.S. FOMC- Federal Open Markets Committee Interest Rate Announcement will hit the newswires at 2:15 pm, ET.

All eyes will be focused on the statement following the Fed’s interest rate announcement for the policy makers’ outlook on the economy and for hints of the Fed’s willingness to start raising rates in the near future.

Another major spotlight event will follow with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Announcement, scheduled at 5:00 pm, ET.

The recent CPI report from New Zealand showed inflationary pressures rising slower that expected, reducing the odds of a rate hike at this meeting, but the central bank could offer more clarity on their view of economic conditions and future monetary policy.

The day will conclude with the New Zealand Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 6:45 pm, ET, and the Australian Leading Indicators of economic activity, at 8:00 pm, ET.

Thursday, Apr. 29 will begin with the U.K. Nationwide Home Price Index, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring changes in home prices, at 2:00 am, ET, and the German Unemployment Change, at 3:55 am, ET.

The U.S economic data will include the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

The New Zealand Building Permits, a leading indicator of housing market activity, will follow at 6:45 pm, ET.

The day will conclude with a sequence of important economic reports, beginning with the U.K. Consumer Confidence, a survey of consumers’ outlook on economic conditions, at 7:00 pm, ET.

The Japanese Manufacturing PMI- Purchasing Manager's Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, will come at 7:15 pm, ET.

A major spotlight event- the Japanese CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, will hit the newswires at 7:30 pm, ET, along with the Japanese Unemployment Rate and Household Spending, also at 7:30 pm, ET.

Deflation continues to be a major problem for the Japanese economy and the national CPI report could confirm that view with another reading below 0%, which could keep the Bank of Japan from raising rates at their next meeting and possibly throughout 2010.

The series of important data will continue with the release of the Japanese Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, at 7:50 pm, ET, and the Japanese Average Cash Earnings, a measure of income, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Friday, Apr. 30 will start with a spotlight event- the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, expected around 12:00 am, ET, and the Japanese Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, at 1:00 am, ET.

Another notable economic event from Japan will deliver the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Report on economic conditions and the future of the bank’s monetary policy, at 2:00 am, ET.

News from the euro-zone will bring a spotlight event- the euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the euro-zone and the European equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index, at 5:00 am, ET, along with the euro-zone Unemployment Rate, also at 5:00 am, ET.

The recent trend of rising inflationary pressures in the euro-zone might help the euro, but only news of a Greek bailout and resurgence of risk appetite could provide stronger support for the single currency.

The sequence of spotlight events will continue with the Canadian GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 8:30 am, ET, and the Canadian IPPI- Industrial Product Price Index and RMPI- Raw Materials Price Index, the main measures of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers, also at 8:30 am, ET.

Another strong and faster than expected economic growth report from Canada could keep the Canadian dollar well bid on expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike as early as their next meeting on June 1, 2010.

The U.S. economic reports will begin with one of the major spotlight events of the week- the U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, at 8:30 am, ET.

The U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2010 is expected to slow down to 3.5% from 5.6% in Q4 2009.

The U.S. data will continue with the U.S. Employment Cost Index, a measure of inflation in wages, at 8:30 am, ET, and the National Association of Purchasing Management – Chicago Index of economic conditions in the Chicago area, at 9:45 am, ET.

The busy trading week will end with a spotlight event- the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET.

Consensus forecasts anticipate an improvement in consumer sentiment to 71.8 in April, compared with a previous reading of 69.5.