On August 19, 2013 Kamakura Corporation reported on trading volume in credit default swaps for non-U.S. banking firms for the 155 weeks ended June 28, 2013. This note updates that analysis for the 181 weeks ended December 27, 2013.
Conclusion: We confirm our earlier results that there is minimal end-user trading in single name credit default swaps on the international banking sector. As noted in our credit default swap study for U.S. banks dated February 11, 2014, the low volume of trading in financial institutions credit default swaps makes credit default swap "prices" unsuitable for the pricing of deposit insurance because of analytical difficulties, lack of sufficient data, risk of manipulation, and conflict of interest for those banks who are also dealers in credit default swaps.
We analyze credit default swap trading volume for the non-U.S. banking firm reference names among the 1,179 reference names for which CDS trades were reported by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation during the 181 week period ending December 27, 2013. The weekly trade information is from the Section IV reports from DTCC. The data is described this way in the DTCC document "Explanation of Trade Information Warehouse Data" (May, 2011):
"Section IV (Weekly Transaction Activity) provides weekly activity where market participants were engaging in market risk transfer activity. The transaction types include new trades between two parties, a termination of an existing transaction, or the assignment of an existing transaction to a third party. Section IV excludes transactions which did not result in a change in the market risk position of the market participants, and are not market activity. For example, central counterparty clearing, and portfolio compression both terminate existing transactions and re-book new transactions or amend existing transactions. These transactions still maintain the same risk profile and consequently are not included as 'market risk transfer activity.'"
We again confirm that our emphasis is not on gross trading volume. As of January 10, 2014, dealer-dealer trading volume made up 72.48% of all single name credit default swaps that were live in the DTCC trade warehouse at that point in time. It would be nearly costless for dealers to inflate gross trading volume by trading among themselves. Instead, we focus on "end user" trading where at least one of the parties to a trade is not a dealer, as defined by the DTCC. Accordingly, we make the following adjustments to the weekly number of trades reported by DTCC for each non-U.S. banking reference name:
- We divide each weekly number of trades by 5 to convert weekly trading volume to an average daily volume for that week.
- From that gross daily average number of trades, we classify 72.48% of trades as "dealer-dealer" trades, using the average "dealer-dealer" share of trades in the DTCC trade warehouse as of January 10, 2014.
- The remaining 27.52% is classified as daily average "non-dealer" volume, the focus of the reporting below.
Daily Non-Dealer Trading Volume for International Banking Reference Names
Of the 1,179 reference names for which DTCC reported credit default swap trades in the 181 week period ending December 27, 2013, 111 were non-U.S. banking firms. The top 10 in trading volume are listed here:
- LLOYDS BANK PLC (NYSE:LYG)
- BANCO SANTANDER, S.A. (NYSE:SAN)
- BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, SOCIEDAD ANONIMA (NYSE:BBVA)
- COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (OTCPK:CRZBY)
- INTESA SANPAOLO SPA (OTCPK:IITOF)
- THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (NYSE:RBS)
- DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (NYSE:DB)
- BARCLAYS BANK PLC (NYSE:BCS)
- UNICREDIT, SOCIETA PER AZIONI (OTCPK:UNCFY)
- CREDIT AGRICOLE SA (OTCPK:CRARY)
Analysis of Daily Average Non-Dealer Trades Per Day
We first analyze the weekly averages for the 111 non-U.S. banking firms for which CDS trading volume was greater than zero during the 181 weeks ending December 27, 2013. The daily average non-dealer trading volume, calculated as described above and averaged over 181 weeks for each firm, was distributed as follows:
The conclusions that can be drawn from this chart are summarized here:
- 75% of the 111 international banks had trading volume that averaged less than 1.16 non-dealer CDS contract per day over the 181 weeks ending December 27, 2013.
- 95% of the 111 international banks had trading volume that averaged less than 3.99 non-dealer CDS contracts per day over the 181 weeks ending December 27, 2013.
- None of the 111 international banks had trading volume that averaged more than 6 non-dealer trades per day in the 181 weeks ended December 27, 2013.
- The average number of non-dealer trades per day over the period studied was 0.98 trades.
- The median number of non-dealer trades per day over the period studied was 0.45 trades.
We conclude that, like the 1,179 reference names overall, trading volume for the 111 international banks with CDS traded during the 181 weeks ending December 27, 2013 is minimal when analyzed on a non-dealer daily average basis.
Analyzing Trading Volume in Aggregate
We now analyze all 181 weeks of data, not just the average over that period, for all 111 international banks for which DTCC reported non-zero trade volume. There were 20,091 = 111 x 181 observations on CDS trading volume for these 111 banks, and there were no trades for 7,030 observations, 34.99% of the total. The distribution of non-dealer trades per day over these 20,091 observations is summarized in the following chart:
One can draw the following conclusions over 13,061 non-zero weekly observations:
- 75% of the observations showed 1.49 non-dealer trade per day or less.
- 95% of the observations showed 5.28 non-dealer trades per day or less.
- 99% of the observations showed 9.52 non-dealer trades per day or less.
- The highest volume week featured 19.59 average non-dealer trades per day.
As we stated above, this confirms that there is minimal trading volume in the 111 international banks on which CDS trades were reported by DTCC in the 181 weeks ended December 27, 2013.
Detailed Information on CDS Trading Volume by Individual Reference Name
The 20 international banks with the highest trading volume over the period studied are listed in the following table:
The graph below shows the weekly gross number of contracts traded over the full 181 week period for Lloyds Bank PLC, which ranked 14th among all 1,179 reference names for which DTCC reported one or more CDS trades:
The gross U.S. dollar equivalent notional principal on Lloyds Bank PLC is summarized in this chart:
We conclude that single name credit default swap trading on non-U.S. banks shares a lot with the London Interbank Offered Rate: a high risk of collusion and price manipulation. For that and the other reasons cited above, any "quotes" on credit default swap levels for international banks cannot be taken seriously unless the volume of actual trades associated with the "quotes" is made clear. If there are no trades associated with the quote, the parallels with "Liebor" become even stronger.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Kamakura Corporation has business relationships with a number of organizations listed in the article.