I'm a credit guy, not an equity guy. Two days ago I'd never heard of Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE) (I'm not the marrying type). But I read a long-thesis from an investor for whom I have an extraordinary amount of respect, I took a look at the company, and I like it. As a short.
My short thesis does not have the depth of quantititve analysis I put behind my credit theses, so don't expect that from this article. My short thesis is simple: The long thesis is wrong, once the error is corrected its apparent that the stock trades at far too high a multiple, and a back-of-the-envelope rough estimate of fair value is a share price of...
|FREE||SA PRO MEMBERS|
|IDEA GENERATOR||X||Exclusive access to 10 PRO ideas every day|
|INVESTING IDEAS LIBRARY||X||Exclusive access to PRO library of more than 15,000 ideas|
|SECTOR EXPERT NETWORK||X||Exclusive access to all sector experts for direct consultation|
|PERFORMANCE TRACKING||X||Track performance of all PRO stock ideas|
|PROFESSIONAL TOOLS||X||Professional Idea Filters to zero-in based on industry, market cap and more|
|PRO Top long ideas returned 21.7% in 2016**|