Fuel Cell Vehicles And Critical Metals: Supply And Demand

Includes: CARZ, FTAG, REMX
by: Jack Lifton

It is "Fuel Cell (powered) Vehicles" season again as many of the world's premier car makers make their annual ritual announcement that they are "studying" or putting into "limited production" passenger carrying vehicles for personal use (i.e., cars) propelled by electricity generated by "fuel cells."

Once again, the perception of greeniosity is meant to trick us into thinking that the fundamental laws of economics have been suspended.

As far as I can determine the electricity for FCVs will be generated when diatomic hydrogen molecules are split into hydrogen ions and free electrons by the action of passing the hydrogen over a catalyst. This previous sentence is totally intelligible to a chemical engineer with the only undefined word in it being "catalyst."

As far as I know the only such "practical" catalysts known for such a reaction are the platinum group metals, primarily the metal, palladium. There has been a lot of research over the last 20 years on trying to produce a fuel cell chemistry based on a more readily available catalyst than a platinum group metal but the results have not been economical. One such program backed by no less than Kleiner Perkins is for a "Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, an SOFC," which uses the extremely scarce rare-earth related metal, scandium, in its catalyst.

The thing that all current fuel cell technologies have in common is that they rely for their operation on large amounts of very scarce materials such as platinum group metals or scandium, as in the discussion above.

There is another problem, the relative value to achieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions of a fuel cell vehicle versus an internal combustion engine powered vehicle using a catalytic converter. This is the real issue of the most efficient use of strategic metals. Let's say that a palladium based fuel cell would use at least one ounce of palladium in order to be able to produce enough electricity to power a 4 passenger car. That same amount of palladium could be used to manufacture 100 exhaust emission catalytic converters for hydrocarbon fueled internal combustion engine powered vehicles! Note well that new global production of palladium is in the 200 tons per year range, which is twice what it was 10 years ago, but nearly impossible to increase as most of the world's new palladium comes from its production as a byproduct of nickel mining in Russia and Canada with a little more coming from South African platinum mining. North America produces some 10% in total of the world's annual new palladium. It is difficult to see how green technologists could ask us to depend on either Russia or South Africa for an "assured supply" of anything much less for an increased supply.

So, the best solution for constructing fuel cells is not to use environmentally precious palladium or any other platinum group metal in such a horribly wasteful way. Unfortunately, the best SOFC, based on scandium, is an even worse solution. There simply is not enough scandium produced in the world. Currently just a few tons a year are produced, so it is believed, in the former Soviet Union.

So we can either rob Peter or mine an empty bank vault.

There is a real analogy here to the rare earth supply issue now facing the world, and even an interface, since scandium is only likely ever to be produced as a byproduct of rare earth production (which itself is ironically usually produced as a byproduct of iron mining).

Platinum group metals used in automotive exhaust emission control devices (catalytic converters) are so scarce as to be among the most recycled materials on the planet. In relative-percentage-recycled terms they are right up there with iron, copper, aluminum, lead, and gold. But it is in absolute terms that the comparison fails. An excellent example of this is the platinum group metal, rhodium, used to eliminate acid-forming nitrogen oxides from automotive internal combustion engine exhaust. The world production of new rhodium as a byproduct of Southern African platinum production is 30 tons a year. Yet the apparent demand from the global OEM automotive industry is nearly 50 tons per year. This additional material must come from the extensive recycling of catalytic converters.

It is the same type of thing with the rare earth elements with a notable exception geographically. In China extensive recycling of rare earth industrial process waste as well as of end of life waste is one of three things that keeps the supply of the key heavy rare earths, terbium and dysprosium, nearly equal to the demand. The others are illegal production within China and purchase of heavy rare earth ore concentrates from outside of China. The three processes together provide a doubling of "official" production of these key rare earths.

Only now in 2014 is there even the beginning of a non-Chinese rare earth recycling industry. This is because with just one exception there is no rare earth separation plant outside of China with the capability/capacity to separate the heavy rare earths from ore concentrates or scrap; there are 38 such facilities in China.

What little scandium is produced in the world may be augmented by the three processes above, but officially there is no verifiable scandium production anywhere.

So, if there is to be a fuel cell powered OEM automotive powertrain revolution it will have to be itself driven by a fuel cell technology that as of now is unproven and does not involve a need for large quantities of either platinum group metals or scandium.

At the moment supplies of platinum group metals and scandium globally are either insufficient or unavailable. Thus fuel cell powered vehicles will be curiosities or the toys of the elites for the foreseeable future.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.