Silver Miners Analyst Watch: March Edition

by: Itinerant


This is a summary report on analyst data on silver mining stocks.

Share prices have increased across the board during the past month, driven by a stronger silver price.

Price targets and recommendations by analysts have changed substantially in some cases during the past month.

This March edition of our article series completes the first dozen on our monthly reports on analyst price targets and recommendations for silver miners. As always we are presenting our latest data, and we are also providing some comparisons to last month's report.

As in previous reports, we included the following silver miners in alphabetical order: Alexco Resource (NYSEMKT:AXU), Bear Creek Mining (OTCPK:BCEKF), Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE), Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK), First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG), Great Panther Silver (NYSEMKT:GPL), Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE:FSM), Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL), Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS), Silver Standard (NASDAQ:SSRI), Silvercorp Metals (SVM) and SilverCrest Mines (NYSEMKT:SVLC).

And starting with the present edition, we have added Hochschild Mining (OTCPK:HCHDF) and Tahoe Resources (NYSE:TAHO) to our watch list.

The table below summarizes our data. Grey columns represent data sourced directly from, and light green colored columns represent processed data derived from this source data.

The first three columns list the company names, ticker symbols and share prices at the time of writing, followed by the change in share price since the last edition.

Price targets (low, median and high) are listed in the following three columns. These targets are followed by a column giving the number of analysts providing data to and the mean recommendations given by these analysts ranging from 1.0 (strong buy) to 5.0 (sell). This concludes the data sourced directly from

The remaining columns list data points computed as percentages of the share prices at the time of writing as given in the third column. The column titled "median-price" gives the differences between the share prices and the median target prices. The column titled "high-low" gives the differences between the high and the low targets. The last four columns titled "target change" document the changes in price targets since the January report with the last column giving the average changes over the low, median and high price targets.

N.B. Data for Great Panther Silver and Bear Creek Mining was provided in Canadian Dollars and converted to US Dollars for the purpose of this article using a conversion rate of C$1.0 = US$0.91

N.B. Data for Hochschild Mining was provided in British Pounds and converted to US Dollars for the purpose of this article using a conversion rate of £1.0 = US$1.67

N.B. Most companies considered for this article are covered by more analysts than reported in our data since this article only considers analyst reports available through . Unfortunately not every analyst is sharing his targets on this platform.

The first chart below illustrates the share price performance since the last edition approximately one month ago. It has been another good month for silver miners and share prices have gone up by a healthy 9.4%, following last month's 11% rise.

Silvercorp Metals is the only company showing losses, while Great Panther Silver has rallied 40% in confirmation of our analysis provided in this article.

Shares trading significantly below the median price target can be viewed as having a greater potential than shares trading close to the median target. Values in column "median-price" can give some indication on the potential of a stock. A diagram visualizing this difference between the medium price target and the current share price is given below. We would like to caution that this way of thinking does not apply for companies that have had significant events moving the share price in recent times since analysts will take their time to update their data accordingly.

Applying this logic we find that Hochschild Mining, Silvercorp Metals, Bear Creek Mining and First Majestic Silver have the greatest potential trading between 20% and 40% below median price targets.

Great Panther Silver and Alexco Resource Corp are trading significantly above their respective median price targets indicating caution; or perhaps a good time to take profits in the case of Great Panther Silver.

The difference between the high and the low targets represents a measure for the divergence in analyst opinions. Column "high-low" documents this difference and the diagram below visualizes it.

This divergence in analyst targets is greatest for Coeur Mining and Hochschild Mining. Analysts remain remarkably agreeable with regards to price targets for Great Panther Silver and Silvercorp Metals.

Column "target change average" lists the average change in price targets during the past month and the diagram below illustrates the associated numbers.

Unlike last month price targets followed suit this time around rising in parallel with appreciating share prices. Targets for all companies were increased during the past month, with the exception of Coeur Mining and to a much lesser degree Great Panther Silver.

On average targets were raised by 5.1% with Fortuna Silver Mines (+11.9%) receiving the greatest upgrade.

The final diagram illustrates column "Recommendation" from the table above. The little red bars in this diagram indicate changes in analysts' recommendation from last month. A rating of 1 represents a strong BUY recommendation in this system, and a rating of 5 represents a strong SELL recommendation.

Since earnings season is in full swing, quite a number of changes occurred during the past month. Silvercrest's recommendation rating dropped the most, while small improvements are noted for Coeur Mining and Silver Standard.

Starting with next month's edition, we will have a minimum of one year of analyst data for precious metal miners to look back on. Since analyst targets are typically given with a 1 year timeframe, we will be able to check up on the accuracy of some predictions.

Disclosure: I am long AG, EXK, SVLC, HL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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