So Much for the Housing Recovery

|
Includes: LEN, PHM, TOL, XHB
by: TraderMark

Despite a market up almost 80 straight points - effectively a 9 day rally - housing stocks can't get out of their own way. As I peruse stocks for the short side of the portfolio many of these names keep popping up. (Click to enlarge)

Considering a government that has been bribing Americans to buy homes for 1.5 years, record mortgage rates, record affordability and the strongest part of the year for real estate now here - what do these stocks say about a "housing bottom"? Which a certain talking head has promised for 3 of the past 5 years...

Even scarier: with 7M American households not paying their mortgage, consider the effects if these people were actually facing the old system where you were kicked out after not paying in about 7-9 months. Can we imagine the inventory situation with 7M more empty homes that need buyers?

Further, can you imagine how damaging even "normal" mortgage rates of 6% would be on a populace now addicted to easy money? [Jun 3, 2009: A Country that Cannot Function Without Easy Money] Dare we think about the end game of 7% mortgages? What proportion of people who qualify at 5% would have no chance at 6% or 7%?

Anyhow no worries. That guy who screams on financial entertainment TeeVee told me housing bottomed in 2006 2008 2009.