Economic Calendar: PMIs and Confidence Indexes

by: Econ Grapher

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 28th of June 2010. The end of June confidence indicators and PMI's start to come out this week; on the confidence indicators side there's U.S. consumer confidence, New Zealand business confidence, EU economic confidence, U.K. consumer confidence, and the Bloomberg financial conditions index. On the PMI side, there's the closely watched ISM manufacturing PMI in the U.S., and the CFLP and HSBC PMI's in China, there's also Japan's Tankan survey, and U.K. and EU PMIs. On the employment front there's the nonfarm payrolls update from the U.S. (as well as an update on the housing market with the S&P Case Shiller index due out), and official unemployment rates from the EU and Japan.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
MON EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) June 1.0% 1.2%
MON 3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (June) 48.2
MON 12:30 USD Personal Income (May) 0.5% 0.4%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Spending (May) 0.1% 0.0%
MON 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core y/y 1.2% 1.2%
MON 12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.32 0.29
MON 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (May) 5.0% 5.1%
MON 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May P) 0.0% 1.3%
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (June) 98.1 98.4
TUE 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (June) 0.32 0.34
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 sa m/m -0.35% -0.05%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) 3.4% 2.3%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (June) 62.5 63.3
TUE 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (June) -19 -18
WED 5:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (May) 5.0% 0.6%
WED 6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (June) 9.0% 9.8%
WED 7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (June) 7.7% 7.7%
WED 8:30 GBP Current Account (Pounds) (1Q) -4.5B -1.7B
WED 8:30 GBP GDP y/y Q1 Final -0.2% -0.2%
WED 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (June) 1.5% 1.6%
WED 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (June) 60K 55K
WED 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (April) 0.1% 0.6%
WED 20:15 USD Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index -1.0
WED 21:00 CNY CFLP Manufacturing PMI 53.2 53.9
WED 22:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 52.7
WED 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (2Q) 1 -8
WED 23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (2Q) -3 -10
WED 23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q) 5.0% -0.4%
THU 1:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.6%
THU 1:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (May) 0.0% -14.8%
THU 3:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (June) 2.5%
THU 6:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.4% 1.0%
THU 8:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (June F) 55.6 55.6
THU 8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing (June) 57.6 58.0
THU 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (June) 59.0 59.7
THU 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (June) 72.0 77.5
THU 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) -15.2% 6.0%
THU 14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (May) -0.6% 2.7%
THU 23:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (June) 3.7%
FRI 9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (May) 10.1% 10.1%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (June) -110K 431K
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (June) 9.8% 9.7%
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (June) 113K 41K
FRI 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning (YoY) (June) 2.0% 1.9%
FRI 14:00 USD Factory Orders (May) -0.5% 1.2%

As noted we start July with some of the high frequency data, one of the key ones being the confidence indicators. First up is New Zealand business confidence, which will be interesting to see given the lukewarm GDP results reported for Q1 last week. Then there's EU economic confidence and the business climate indicator; both expected to cool slightly for June. Then on Tuesday, there's the U.S. conference board Consumer Confidence index, which is expected to ease slightly. The U.K. GfK consumer confidence survey is also expected to drop slightly for June. So on the confidence front there's not much confidence in confidence it seems...

The other key high frequency economic indicator is the PMI or Purchasing Manager's Index. The influential ISM manufacturing PMI in the U.S. will provide some useful clues as to the direction and current state of the U.S. economic recovery; expectations are for a slight weakening. But as always the components will be the interesting bit. Of course the other key release will be from China, with both the CFLP and HSBC indexes released around Wednesday. These will provide a timely update on the direction of China's industrial economic growth engine - which has showed some signs of easing off. And the other one of the top 3 economies is Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions, with expectations for improvements, as the Japanese economy benefits from a gradual rebound in international trade.

On the employment front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due out on Friday, with the consensus being at the moment for another 113k jobs added in June (with 41k added in May). The employment situation in the U.S. is getting increasing attention as economists, strategists, investors, and consumers alike attempt to assess how the U.S. economic recovery will unfold; the employment situation, and closely related; the housing situation (note the S&P Case Shiller house price index is also out this week), are critical to not only the probability of a recovery in consumer spending, but also the pace and effectiveness of consumer deleveraging and wealth rebuilding.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...

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