The Semi Cycle Has Seen Better Days

Includes: SMH, SOXX, XSD
by: William Trent, CFA

WSTS projects semiconductor industry growth to peak in 2008:

World Semiconductor Trade Statistics [WSTS] projects the global semiconductor industry will continue to grow in 2007 and peak in 2008, said WSTS Asia-Pacific president Tony Huang. Huang said the global semiconductor industry should enjoy mild growth in 2007 at 8.6%, up further from this year’s projected 8.5%. Memory IC production value growth should grow at 8.9% while logic IC will reach 8.8% in 2007. The entire industry growth should peak in 2008 with an on-year growth rate of 12% to a production value of US$314.4 billion.

That’s it? What happened to the 40% year/year growth rates seen as recently as 2004?

semi demand 1

And more importantly, when are they going to fill all of the excess capacity they are adding?

semi supply

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