The Anxious Index is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and refers to the probability of a decline in real GDP, as reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken and in each of the following four quarters. According to the Philly Fed the Anxious Index is the probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter after a survey is taken. For example, in the survey taken in the second quarter of 2010, the anxious index is 9.81 percent, which means that forecasters believe there is a 9.81% chance that real GDP will decline in the third quarter of 2010.
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|From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors|