Cramer's Mad Money - Why Isn't The Selling More Pronounced (4/23/14)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday April 23.

Why Isn't The Selling More Pronounced?: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), IBM (NYSE:IBM), FireEye (NASDAQ:FEYE), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). Other stocks mentioned: Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR), Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG)

Why isn't the selling more pronounced," Cramer asked on a day the Dow was down 13 points. "The things that are supposed to go wrong either don't happen or self-correct." Cramer mentioned things that should have brought down stocks more.

1. People expected disappointing quarters from stocks like Facebook (FB), which showed significant improvement in mobile, gross margins and advertising. "FB is a very cheap stock on EPS," Cramer said. Apple (AAPL) reported surprisingly good iPhone sales, expanded buyback and a dividend boost, Apple was "ignited." Apple is also having a 7 for 1 stock split, which doesn't actually do much in actuality, but may improve shareholder confidence.

2. Federal Reserve Tapering: People have been "living in fear" of tapering, but the Fed has been tapering gradually and interest rates have not been affected dramatically.

3. Managers were "supposed to" implement cost-cutting and buybacks to prop up their stocks. Instead, we are seeing stocks with real revenue growth. Even companies like JPMorgan (JPM) and IBM (IBM), which currently lack strong revenue growth are likely to improve their situations. Many companies, especially restaurants, were hurt by higher food costs rather than a lack of growth.

4. Not everything is going down at once: There is always a sector that "saves the day," guarding against a truly across-the-board sell-off. Or if stocks in a certain sector decline, a benchmark stock in the same sector performs well. In addition, it is a good thing that the air is being taken out of the bubble of the high-multiple stocks. Tech is diversified enough to absorb the decline from the former high-flyers. FireEye (FEYE) is an example of a stock that needed to decline.

5. Dividends are protecting stocks: Even though companies like McDonald's (MCD) and Kimberly Clark (KMB) disappoint, the dividends act as cushions for the downside.

Cramer took some calls:

Emerson Electric (EMR) has a great order number of 10%. "Things are finally working," said Cramer, "You hold on to that stock."

PLUG Power (PLUG) has issued a secondary offering; "I am tired of being plugged by Plug."

Let's Hear It For Shareholder Activism: Allergan (NYSE:AGN), Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP).

"Love it or hate it, shareholder activism works," said Cramer, "and it works for you." While Cramer was critical of the hostile takeover bid for Allergan (AGN) by Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which is likely to acquire AGN only to "gut" it with radical cost-cutting, there might be some upside for shareholders if such a deal goes through, even though it might not be the best thing for the company or its customers. Bill Ackman is pulling for the potential acquisition of Allgergan. Nelson Peltz is likely to put pressure on PepsiCo (PEP), and while he might not be able to affect a break-up, he is likely to help create a restructuring. Carl Icahn is advising Apple on how to use its surplus cash. "I can't castigate anything that moves stocks up," said Cramer. Sometimes management needs an activist investor to light a fire under the company.

Will Micron (NASDAQ:MU) Break Out Of Its Cycle? Other stocks mentioned: Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX), Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), General Electric (NYSE:GE)

"What the heck is happening with Micron (MU)?" The maker of DRAM and flash chips was thought to be a commoditized producer which was wholly dependent on inventory and pricing. The stock was not performing well between 2010-12 because of excess supply. The stock has had a stupendous run from $5 in 2012 to $26 currently. Since it has nothing proprietary, these runs have usually been short-lived, because competitors would flood the market with more supply. This was a "wash, rinse and repeat" cycle.

MU reported a strong quarter, which brought the bears out, predicting the usual pattern. However, Cramer thinks that this time might be different for Micron. Some bullish analysts think MU has changed and has broken out of the vicious cycle, thanks to consolidation. It acquired a Japanese DRAM company in 2012 and has a joint venture with other companies, while other chipmakers have folded. Significant capacity has been taken out, with only Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), Himax (HIMX) and Micron as leaders in the industry. It is likely that none of these companies will increase supply, and it is in the interest of all three to keep prices down. Herb Greenberg of CNBC is concerned that Samsung will increase DRAM capacity and Himax rebuilt a factory recently, and there is insider selling in Micron. However, bulls point out that declines in PCs are slowing. Cramer would take some profits in at least part of a position in Micron, since he got behind it when it traded at $9. While Greenberg may be right about MU eventually, Cramer doesn't think these players will increase supply in the near future. Cramer would bless Micron for speculation only; "Be aware that at any point, the axe could come down." However, for those who like risk, there is likely more money to be made in Micron until its own personal doomsday.

Cramer took some calls:

General Electric (GE) had a good quarter. Cramer is concerned about rumors that it may make a European acquisition, and he wants to hear more about this before recommending the stock.

CEO Interview: Chuck Bunch, PPG Industries (NYSE:PPG)

PPG Industries (PPG) used to be a commoditized chemical business, but it has sold off these assets and has focused on proprietary chemicals, coatings and products for industrial and commercial use. It delivered a 10 cent earnings beat, a 17% increase in revenues, a 10% dividend increase and a buyback. The stock is up 5% in 3 months, 36% since last year and has quadrupled since Cramer first recommended it in 2009. European volumes advanced 5%, and CEO Chuck Bunch said that, since a third of the business is in Europe, "This is what we have been waiting for. We are pleased." There were major improvements in automotive and construction domestically and overseas. Overall, the inclement weather in North America did not affect the company negatively. Consumers are willing to accept a slight increase in paint prices, and PPG is looking to make more acquisitions. Cramer thinks PPG is a buy on any decline.

Off The Charts With Industrials: Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLI), United Rentals (NYSE:URI), Tyco International (TYC)

Industrials are likely to go higher as the economy improves. Cramer consulted the technical analyst Dan Fitzpatrick of The weekly chart of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) shows a strong and steady uptrend that started in 2013. It broke out of a volatility squeeze, meaning that it was trading sideways and the Bollinger bands were narrow. This pattern usually precedes an aggressive rally, and the XLI has gained 40% since then. Every time the XLI pulls back to the mid-point of the Bollinger bands, the stock goes higher. The XLI has been trading sideways, but Fitzpatrick thinks the bullish uptrend is not over. As long as it holds above its 40 week moving average, Fitzpatrick is a believer in the industrial cohort. Cramer prefers individual stocks to ETFs, so he took a look at a chart of United Rentals (URI).

United Rentals' chart shows that every time the stock has pulled back to its 50 day moving average, the buyers have come in, and the stock has rebounded. The last time this happened, it gained 26%. Fitzpatrick thinks it might go above $100 as long as it holds above $85. Cramer agrees with Fitzpatrick's assessment of URI.

Tyco International (TYC) has doubled since 2012, and Fitzpatrick thinks the stock shows no signs of falling. He thinks the stock might have temporarily topped, but thinks it is a buy below $40. Cramer would not buy Tyco prior to its report, but might consider recommending it if it falls after earnings on Friday.


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