The SPDR Homebuilders ETF: An Attractive Investment-Defensive Vehicle For Hidden Reasons

Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
Peter F. Way, CFA
18.05K Followers

Summary

  • Homebuilders are only 1/4th to 1/3rd of XHB's holdings, the rest revolve around home formations.
  • Demographics don’t stop immediately nor do their impacts.
  • Established familial trends drive continuing demand to expand housing units.
  • Shifting focus toward rentals is depressing builders, overlooking continuing demand for equipment, furnishings.
  • Market-Makers sense big-money-fund clients picking up on this opportunity, see likely ETF price gains near-term, better than other ETFs, and overall market.

Ducking the boomerang

What happens when the head of an empty-nest retires, or gets laid off? Unless the nest is well-feathered, he (and she) downsizes, conserving resources. If they are like many, their 401-k mutual fund investments haven't grown much over the years, and now-instant financial planning takes stage-front. The now too-big family pad is a (unfortunately, somewhat-reduced, but available) source of liquidity, and a move into reduced quarters may eliminate remaining mortgage payments. This may be a partial explanation of the current high percentage of home purchases being for cash.

When the kids, lucky to get a job, find themselves priced out of what used to be a low downpayment first-home market by for-cash purchasers, they must, for starters, turn to a rental. The ones without jobs come back from college (with big debts) to find that their former bedroom has mutated first from a home office and job-search center, to being owned by someone they never met, who has his/her own needs. Maybe dad can help with the rent money.

Unpleasant as it may be for many in this 300-million country, home ownership has become a luxury enjoyed by a smaller proportion of the population. Renting is where the action is. And all those units need refrigerators, laundry facilities, beds, drapes, rugs, and the other necessities.

So where is the opportunity?

For the producers of that stuff it may be more profitable and efficient if the landlord pays for it and packs its cost into the monthly rent. So Whirlpool (WHR), Tempur-Sealy (TPX), and the rest of the home-furnishing community get their deserved share of the demand revenues. And Home Depot (HD) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) know how to pick up the crumbs (?) from the ongoing relocations.

That reasoning has percolated up into the investment-researching community and is

This article was written by

Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
18.05K Followers
Peter Way Associates provides daily updated, near-term (3-month) price range forecasts for over 2,500 widely-held and actively-traded stocks, ETFs and market Indexes. Comprehensive results are available on the SA blog of my name.__These forecasts are derived from the way market professionals protect their own capital placed at risk while helping big-money portfolio managers adjust their holdings in multi-million-dollar "block" transactions.__ They cannot be found elsewhere.__Having these price-change prospects available on a continuous basis encourages individual investors to actively and economically build up the values of their own smaller portfolios. PWA only provides information for individual investors; it no longer manages investments for others.__Rates of portfolio capital growth being achieved by subscribers are at MULTIPLES of the growth in market averages, due to the efficient use of holding period time and the compounding of gains a number of times each year.__Risks of capital loss are protected against by insightful selection guidance and holding-period-limit disciplines. The advantages of good selection and careful timing amply cover a much smaller portion of unavoidable losses.__These Market-maker forecasts have several decades of demonstrated productivity. Earlier in the 20th century they were used by large institutional portfolios, and now in the 21st century they are available only to individual investor wealth-building portfolios. Thousands of day-by-day identifications of specific securities having consistent, odds-on profitable results rule out any likelihood of their exceptional outcomes being due to chance. Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 50+ years ago. Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments. He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest.

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