Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of September 2010. This week there are additional GDP iterations due out from the U.S. and U.K.. And of course, given September ends this week, (damn this year is going fast!) there will be the PMI stats out, with China and the U.S. being the key ones to watch in that space. Japan also takes to the stage a few times this week with trade data, the quarterly Tankan survey, retail trade, industrial production, employment, and CPI data all due out this week. Of course the other key data in the U.S. to watch will be the Case-Shiller house price index, and both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence stats.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||JPY||Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (August)||19.0||23.5|
|MON||JPY||Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (August)||17.5||15.7|
|MON||CNY||Industrial Profits YTD YoY (August)||81.6%|
|MON||EUR||German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September )||1.3%||1.0%|
|TUE||08:30||GBP||UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)||1.7%||1.7%|
|TUE||08:30||GBP||UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)||1.2%||1.2%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July)||147.97|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City (MoM) s.a. (July)||-0.10%||0.28%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (July)||3.10%||4.23%|
|TUE||14:00||USD||Consumer Confidence (September)||53.5|
|TUE||21:45||NZD||Imports (New Zealand dollars) (August)||3.75B|
|TUE||21:45||NZD||Exports (New Zealand dollars) (August)||3.57B|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (3Q)||1|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q)||3|
|TUE||23:50||JPY||Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)||4.4%|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (September)||0.58||0.61|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (September)||-5||-4|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (September F)||-11||-11|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (September)||101.3||101.8|
|WED||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Services Confidence (September)||7||7|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Retail Trade (YoY) (August)||3.9%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY) (August P)|
|WED||02:00||NZD||NBNZ Activity Outlook (September)||25.7|
|WED||02:00||NZD||NBNZ Business Confidence (September)||16.4|
|THU||07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change (September)||-20K||-17K|
|THU||12:30||CAD||Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (July)||-0.1%||0.2%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T)||1.8%||1.6%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)||1.9%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||Jobless Rate (August)||5.2%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National CPI (YoY) (August)||-0.9%||-0.9%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (August)||-1.5%||-1.5%|
|THU||01:00||CNY||PMI Manufacturing (September)||52.8||51.7|
|FRI||08:00||EUR||Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (September F)||53.6||53.6|
|FRI||08:30||GBP||PMI Manufacturing (September)||53.8||54.3|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (August)||10.0%||10.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Personal Income (August)||0.3%||0.2%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY)||1.4%||1.4%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (September F)||67.0||66.6|
|FRI||14:00||USD||ISM Manufacturing (September)||54.5||56.3|
Starting off with the U.S. data; the U.S. is set to release another iteration of GDP data for Q2 this week, with consensus for the annualised rate to be 1.8%, the U.K. also releases another iteration of its Q2 GDP results this week; expecting to show 1.2% growth q/q.
Probably one of the most important data pieces to watch will be the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data, prices are forecast to come in more or less flat (for July) as the U.S. housing market continues to be weighed down by the after effects of the housing crash/global financial crisis (synonyms?). The U.S. also has two key measures of the consumer out (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence index), expectations are for the figure to come in more or less flat as the U.S. economy muddles along.
Over in Japan there is a smorgasbord of data out this week, with the Tankan index probably being one of the most interesting to see (particularly in terms of outlook). There's also the critical export/import data, retail trade, and industrial production. In terms of inflation (aka deflation), the change in the consumer price index is expected to be more or less flat on a year on year basis, compare to July. But overall this swath of data will provide a good insight as to where the Japanese economy (now the 3rd largest economy behind China and the U.S. by most measures) is and where it's headed.
Possibly one of the most interesting data points out this week will be the manufacturing PMI results from the U.S. and China. The U.S. is expected to see its PMI figure fall from 56.3 in in August to 54.5 in September, while China is expected to continue its rebound from its brief flirtation the 50 point mark; potentially rising to 52.8 from 51.7 in August. Of course for China its best to review both the Markit/HSBC PMI numbers as well as the official CFLP numbers to gain extra insight.
Elsewhere there's inflation data in Germany for September - expected to show a slight increase, New Zealand imports and exports, Euro-Zone confidence indices - broadly expected to remain relatively flat. Then there's business confidence in New Zealand, German unemployment change, Canadian GDP for the month of July, Euro-Zone and U.K. manufacturing PMI data, and EU unemployment rate (expected to stay around 10%).
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Disclosure: No positions