Recently I pointed to some comments by Andy Xie which indicated he was taking a less apocalyptic stance toward the Chinese property market. It was difficult to discern how much of a climb down this was for the China bear. But, judging from an article just published in Bloomberg, Xie has not recanted entirely; he is still bearish on the Chinese property market. He just expects the timing of the collapse to be different and the effect on the real economy to be less severe.
I thought the current bubble, fueled by rapid monetary expansion and expectations of a stronger yuan since the beginning of 2007, would go the same way. Recent developments have changed my mind. This bubble may not end suddenly, but with a slow leak. Previously, I thought the government would relax its credit-tightening policies in the fourth quarter, leading to another surge in property prices. The bubble would pop with a big bang in the second half of 2011 or in 2012.
But the government is not relaxing property restrictions at all. So Xie is changing his story. he does not expect the manic surge blow-off top in Chinese property prices. He says:
As Chinese real-estate prices deflate slowly now, and faster in 2012, the economy will hold up. Exports, consumption and infrastructure should sustain a 7 percent to 8 percent growth rate for the next decade. That seems low compared with recent years, but it will be much better for lifting wages, household living standards and corporate profits.
Am I wrong or does Xie almost sound like a China bull here?
Source: Chinese Property Bust Is Morphing Into a Slow Leak: Commentary by Andy Xie – Bloomberg