Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

| About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q3 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, October 19 with a conference call scheduled for 9 am ET.


Analysts are looking for a profit of 36c on revenue of $1.1B. The consensus range is 23c-46c for EPS, and revenue of $1.03B-$1.14B, according to First Call. UBS said Harley-Davidson's U.S. retail sales likely declined in September, but not as much as industry declines. The firm expects Q3 sales to be down 10% but does not expect a change in the company's 2010 production guidance.

Analyst Views

RBC Capital analyst Edward Aaron previously indicated that the company's U.S. retail sales turned positive in September. The company's comps declined by mid-teen levels from May to August. A positive sales number for September would come as a positive surprise to investors who expect Harley's Q3 retail sales to decline about 15%. If the company reports that its U.S. retail sales rose in September, its Q3 sales are likely to drop closer to 10%, according to Aaron. In July, the company said it still expects 2010 motorcycle shipments down 5%-10% to 201,000-212,000 motorcycles to dealers and distributors worldwide.