Near 14 Year Low In Initial Jobless Claims

by: Hale Stewart

By New Deal Democrat

Initial jobless claims only 2000 from 14 year low, forecast unemployment under 6% shortly

Initial jobless claims reported at 284,000 Thursday morning were only 2000 above the best number in the last 14 years, set for one week in 2006. Before that, the last time initial claims were below 284,000 was back in early 2000, as shown in the graph below:

The four week average of jobless claims is also at an 8 year low. It was below this number for several months in 2006, and before that in 2000. In the graph below, I have averaged claims over an entire month:

Since initial jobless claims leads the unemployment rate, I fully expect an unemployment rate under 6.0% - i.e., out of a recessionary range - within the next 2 to 3 months.

New Deal Democrat,