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IEA Forecast: Economy Depends on 'Yet to Be Found' Oil

Nov. 10, 2010 6:04 PM ETCSX, BNI24 Comments
Bill James profile picture
Bill James

The US is a treaty member and has pledged the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the International Energy Agency [IEA] to mitigate the risk of another 1973 Oil Embargo.

The following graph is from the recently released 2010 World Energy Outlook.

Several red flags should accompany this graph:

  1. The future of our economy depends on crude oil "fields yet to be found" and "fields yet to be developed" on a scale several times bigger than Saudi Arabia.
  2. It takes 6-10 years to develop newly discovered oil fields. According to the graph, we have 3 years.
  3. Based on the vertical bar, this graph was created in 2009, before the BP Spill and the moratorium on new exploration. The rate of exploration has slowed
  4. Crude oil "fields to be developed" will have to be capitalized as governments compete for debt, devalue currencies and people struggle to pay for both their mortgages and their commute.

It is beyond the author's comprehension how governments can bet the survival of their nations, cities and people on oil "yet to be developed", and worse, "yet to be found".

I would invest in guns, food stocks, gardening supplies, coal, railroads, personal rapid transit, electric motor scooters and renewable (solar, wind, tides). There are not yet opportunities for some of these investments.

  • Guns to survive this level of competence and gun companies because they will sell many of them.
  • Food stocks because farming and food distribution is going to be disrupted by higher gas prices and outages.
  • Gardening suppliers. People will strive to be self-reli
  • Coal because it is local. Not oil because my guess it will be nationalized, rationed and price controlled.
  • Railroads and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT, ultra-light robotic railroads) for the same reason, efficient transport of goods and people. Railroads operate at over 400 ton-miles per gallon. PRT move people and

This article was written by

Bill James profile picture
Bill received a BS in 1972 from West Point with concentrations in math, physics, chemistry, and engineering. He was an NCAA All American Wrestler and captain of the wrestling team. He is an eight-year infantry veteran, Airborne, Ranger, Arctic Light and Mechanized Infantry in the United States Army. His industrial experience started in 1980 with working for Honeywell for six years setting up manufacturing capabilities around the US and Europe. In 1986 he founded Applied Statistics to develop and sell the software, electronics, and tools to implement Statistical Process Controls for manufacturing processes. In 1989, he founded JITCorp to create the software to clarify and proactively manage the selling process. JITCorp’s principal products are WebClerk and CommerceExpert. In 1998 he began working on the patent for applying distributed collaborative computer networks to improving the mobility process (6,810,817). JPods LLC was founded to implement the re-tooling of transportation in the niche of highly repetitive, commuter range transport of people and cargo with payloads less than 1200 pounds. Bill is the author of Desktop Hosting, A Developer’s Guide to Unattended Communications (http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Desktop-Hosting/Bill-James/e/9780471207672&prid=9780471207672&lkid=J15005220&pubid=K17117) (Wiley), which outlines technology and concepts for networking the supply matrix. He holds Patent 6,810,817, Intelligent Transport, which applies distributed collaborative computer networks to moving physical packets, a Physical-Internet™. Bill is married with grown children and is a runner.

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