Sirius and Auto Sales: Edmunds Forecasts 12.2 Million SAAR for November

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Includes: F, GM, HMC, NSANY, SIRI, TM
by: Satellite Radio Playground

edmundsBy Demian Russian

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Edmunds released their November forecast for November U.S. auto sales Wednesday and things are looking pretty good for Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) going into the end of the year. The large majority of Sirius XM’s subscriber growth comes from the OEM channel. Analysts at Edmunds are projecting a November SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) of 12.2 million, which matches last month’s October SAAR. While Edmunds is projecting total November vehicle sales of 865,000, which is a 8.1% drop month-over-month, November is historically one of the weakest sales months of the year. 865,000 vehicles sold in November would equate to a 17% year-over-year improvement. Edmunds sees this strong November forecast indicating “stability in an otherwise still unsettled economy.”

Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn. The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Chrysler, Ford (NYSE:F),and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are projected to have 45.5% U.S. market share in November, up 0.7% year-over-year and up 0.3% month-over-month. This increasing strength in the Big 3′s market share bodes well for Sirius XM Radio’s subscriber growth, due to their high Satellite Radio penetration rates.

Edmunds is projecting that Chrysler will sell 75,900 units in November, up 22.4% year-over-year, but down 15.4% month-over-month. Ford is forecast to sell 149,900 units in November, up 25.6% year-over-year, but down 2% month-over-month. GM is forecast to sell 167,900 units in November 2010, up 11.5% year-over-year, but down 8.5% month-over-month. Honda (NYSE:HMC) is forecast to sell 85,700 units in November 2010, up 16.2% year-over-year, but down 13.3 month-over-month. Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) is forecast to sell 61,100 units in November 2010, up 10% year-over-year, but down 12.4% month-over-month. Toyota (NYSE:TM) is forecast to sell 131,300 units in November 2010, down 1.8% year-over-year, but down 9.8% month-over-month. There are 24 total selling days in November 2010, one more than November 2009.

A Monday, November 22nd Playground Radio interview with Edmunds senior analyst Jessica Caldwell can be heard live via the link below:

Playground Radio — Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

Disclosure: Long SIRI