5 Stocks Expected to Gain From Mobile Internet Trends

Includes: AKAM, CSCO, T, TEF, VZ
by: Louis Rhéaume

Here are nine actual mobile Internet trends identified by Mary Meeker of Kleiner Perkins.

  1. Ubiquitous computing: real-time connectivity, 24x7, in palm of hand.
  2. More affordable: device and data plan pricing falling.
  3. Faster: networks and devices improving (related to Moore’s Law).
  4. Personal: location, preferences, behavior.
  5. Fun to use: social, casual, reward-driven marketing.
  6. Access nearly everything everywhere: "Stuff" in cloud.
  7. Explosion of apps and monetization: more and making more money.
  8. Measurable real-world activation: driving foot traffic to physical stores.
  9. Reward / Influence behavior in real-time: for exactly the right people.

Eight others trends should appear in the near term.

  1. HTML5 vs. downloadable apps.
  2. NFC (Near Field Communication) for payment, offers, loyalty.
  3. Consumer lead mobile health for monitoring, diagnosis, wellness.
  4. Rapid enterprise adoption of tablets for productivity.
  5. Tipping point: > 50% of population in developed markets will have smartphones.
  6. "SoLoMO": Social, local, mobile convergence.
  7. "Gamification": ultimate way to engage a new generation of audiences.
  8. Empowerment: impact of empowering billions of people around the world with real-time connected devices has just begun.

Who will mostly benefit from those trends? Here are some:

  • Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO): Mobile data traffic should grow 26X in five years. Cisco is a key supplier enabling mobile data traffic management and fixed Internet traffic management. P/E ratio is just at 13.7.
  • Content Delivery Networks: Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM), AT&T's (NYSE:T) Limelight Network: They are the intermediaries between wireless operators and social networks. They are key suppliers with a powerful influence. Social networks users are often avid mobile users also (i.e. 33% of Facebook users, 50% of Twitter users and 50% of Pandora users). AT&T P/E ratio is just 8.4 and Akamai is at 50, but it is for a long time a rumored takeover target, and it has a relatively lower P/E ratio than "pure" cloud computing plays.
  • Wireless operators: Those offering a large choice of apps and a great portfolio of different smartphones manufacturers devices. I.e. Telefonica (NYSE:TEF) is a major global telecom operator offering a good exposure to Latin America offers a broad portfolio of devices. They just launched an App store to compete with Apple, RIM and Android. They offer much more money to developers of apps than competitors. P/E ratio is just 7.3.
  • SMEs: Those leveraging key apps to obtain networks effects and exponential growth in subscribers’ users with new business models, to benefit from technology and social paradigm shifts in the economy. i.e. Shazam, Spotify and Pandora. They are mostly private firms. Pandora has plans for an IPO probably in 2011.
  • Integrated telecom operators: Those betting heavily on the growth of Cloud computing such as Verizon (NYSE:VZ) with its acquisition of Terremark. Offering a one-stop-shop business model for an integrated portfolio of IT and telecom services, is pushing the industry toward more convergence of IT and telecom. For the CEO of Verizon:

"Cloud computing continues to fundamentally alter the way enterprises procure, deploy and manage IT resources, and this combination helps create a tipping point for everything as a service."

Telecom operators provide 9%, or $1 billion, of global cloud services revenue to enterprises, but analysis projects telcos’ share in the market to rise to 23% by 2015 to around $8.2 billion. [1] The P/E ratio is around 40 and it’s now a growth stock.

Sources: Mary Meeker's presentation

[1] http://www.rcrwireless.com/article/20110128/ENABLERAPPS/110129948

Disclosure: I am long TEF

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