The Nasdaq and Dow Shift Into Negative Territory

by: Richard Suttmeier
US stocks tracked the ups and downs of the Nikkei 225 last week. The Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) lost 185 points last week to 11,859, up 2.4% year to date. The NASDAQ (QQQQ) declined 72 points to 2644, down 0.3% year to date. US stock futures are higher this morning, but it’s the weekly closes that matter. The Dow needs a close above 11,994 to avoid a negative weekly chart. The NASDAQ needs a weekly close above 2725 just to shift back to neutral. A flight to quality pulled the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury down 12.2 basis points to 3.227, but this yield is up 10.0 basis points pre-market. Comex gold had a volatile week, but net was up just $2.30 the Troy ounce to $1419.0. This morning gold tested $1229.7, still well below my risky levels. Nymex crude oil was also choppy but ended the week up just 73 cents a barrel to $101.46. Oil traded above $103.35 overnight on the no-fly zone in Libya. The dollar weakened versus the euro, which ended the week at 1.4172. The euro is just slightly lower pre-market this morning.
We begin the week continuing the problems around the world with the nuclear problems in Japan, the US, Great Brittan and France bombing key targets in Libya, the other hot spots in the Middle East and debt problems in Europe. In the US we get New Home Sales on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders on Thursday and final GDP for the 4th quarter of 2010 on Friday.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

(Click charts to expand)

The weekly chart for the Dow Industrial Average shifts to negative this week on a weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 11,994, as momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) will be declining under 8.0. This measure scales between zero and 10.0, where a reading above 8.0 defines an overbought condition. Momentum peaked at 9.5 on February 18th when the high for the cycle was reached at 12,391.29. My first downside target is my annual value level at 11,491. A close in March below 11,491 targets semiannual value levels at 10,959 then 9,449 in the second quarter. This week’s risky level is 12,271.
10-Year Note – (3.277) This yield declined by 12.2 basis points last week to 3.227, as the flight to quality continues. This week’s value level is 3.496 with my monthly risky level at 3.002.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1419.0) gained just $2.30 per Troy ounce last week and is down $2.40 year to date after setting a new all time high at $1445.7 on March 7th. My annual value level is $1356.5 with monthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $1437.7, $1440.7, $1441.7 and $1452.6.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil ($101.46) increased 73 cents per barrel last week to $101.46, between annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $107.14 and $110.87. My monthly value level is $96.43.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.4172) continued to rally versus the dollar ending last week at 1.4172 with this week’s pivot at 1.4028 and semiannual risky level at 1.4624.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
  • The Dow Industrial Average (11,859) Daily and annual value levels are 11,607 and 11,491 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,271 and 12,741. Given a close in March below 11,491 the downside is to semiannual value levels at 10,959 and 9,449.
  • The S&P 500 (1279.2) Daily and annual value level are 1253.0 and 1210.7 with my quarterly pivot at 1262.5, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 1330.7 and 1381.3.
  • The NASDAQ (2644) My daily pivot is 2585 with weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2792, 2853 and 2926. Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.
  • The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2221) My daily value level is 2176 with weekly, quarterly, and monthly risky levels at 2357, 2438 and 2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.
  • Dow Transports (5056) Daily and quarterly value levels are 4968 and 4671 with weekly and annual pivots at 5164 and 5179.
  • The Russell 2000 (794.66) Daily and quarterly value levels are 768.63 and 765.50 with my annual pivot at 784.16, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 842.72 and 850.79. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74.
  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (417.97) My daily value level is 4397.34 with monthly, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 453.89, 462.98 and 465.93. Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and 259.30.


I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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