Economic Calendar: China's Quarterly Data Dump and Developed Market Inflation

by: Econ Grapher

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 10th of April 2011. The main attraction of the coming week is undoubtedly the China data for March and Q1, including GDP, PPI, new loans, retail sales, etc. Other than that it will also be a big week for inflation figures with Germany, the US, UK, and EU all reporting consumer price inflation data. There's also a range of industrial production figures due to be released by France, Italy, Japan, the U.S. and of course China.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/Currency Event Forecast Previous
MON 06:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) 5.20% 5.40%
MON 06:45 EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) 6.40% 6.80%
MON 08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) 3.90% 3.80%
MON 00:00 NZD QV House Prices (YoY) -1.70%
MON 01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 14.00
TUE 06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.10% 2.10%
TUE 08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) 0.10% 0.50%
TUE 08:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) -£3950 -£2950
TUE 08:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.60% 0.70%
TUE 08:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 4.40% 4.40%
TUE 08:30 GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.30% 3.40%
TUE 09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 11.30 14.10
TUE 12:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 2.20% 1.40%
TUE 12:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) 8.90% 6.90%
TUE 12:30 USD Trade Balance -$44.0B -$46.3B
TUE 13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
WED 05:30 EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.80% 1.70%
WED 08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change -3.0K -10.2K
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) 8.00% 6.60%
WED 12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas 0.40% 0.60%
WED 12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales 0.50% 1.00%
WED 14:30 CAD Monetary Policy Report
WED 18:00 USD Beige Book Economic Survey
WED 22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI
THU 12:30 USD Producer Price Index (YoY) 6.40% 5.60%
THU 12:30 USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.90% 1.80%
THU CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves $2980.0B
THU CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) 14.90% 10.30%
THU CNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) 14.90% 14.50%
THU CNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) 15.40% 15.70%
THU CNY New Yuan Loans 600.0B 535.6B
THU 02:00 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) 7.20% 7.20%
THU 02:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) 16.50% 11.60%
THU 02:00 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) 24.80% 24.90%
THU 02:00 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 5.20% 4.90%
THU 02:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 14.10% 14.10%
THU 02:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 14.00% 14.90%
THU 02:00 CNY Real GDP (YoY) 9.40% 9.80%
FRI 04:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) 2.80%
FRI 04:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) 3.60%
FRI 04:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) 0.40%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) 1.30% 0.40%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.60% 2.60%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) -3.6B -3.3B
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) 1.10% 1.00%
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) -4.0B -14.8B
FRI 12:30 USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.20% 0.20%
FRI 12:30 USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.20% 1.10%
FRI 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.50% 0.50%
FRI 12:30 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.60% 2.10%
FRI 13:15 USD Industrial Production 0.60% -0.10%
FRI 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization 77.40% 76.30%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 69.00 67.50

As noted, the star of the week is China. Real GDP growth y/y is expected to come in at 9.4% - slightly slower than the 9.8% in 4Q2010. Inflation is expected to come in a little higher at 5.2% vs 4.9% in February but could end up being higher or lower. New loans are expected around $600 billion and industrial production and producer prices are expected to be about flat. China's quarterly data dump is always a great chance to get an insight into how that economy is progressing - of course it will take on a whole new importance with the current themes underway in that economy.

While China's inflation numbers will be interesting, so too will the set of developed market inflation numbers due out this week. Germany is up first with an expected flat 2.1%, then there's the U.K. also with an expected flat 4.4%. Then later in the week the EU is expected to report 2.6% inflation in its flash report (or 1.3% month on month), then over to the US the headline yoy is expected at 2.6% with core forecast at 1.2%. The developed market inflation situation is set to become a key theme this year as surging emerging market inflation looks set to spread to developed markets, this will be a key area to monitor.

Elsewhere, as mentioned, China, France, Italy, US, UK, and Japan will release industrial production figures - which will be interesting in terms of monitoring the manufacturing sector's progress. Also this week on the monetary policy front is the Bank of Canada, expected to hold its policy rate at 1.00%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also due to release its Beige Book report on the U.S. economy. The U.S. will also release its trade balance (deficit) - expected to improve slightly, and import price indices data.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates ...


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.