Extreme Networks Post-Earnings Declines See Little Follow-Through; Longs See Better Track Record

| About: Extreme Networks, (EXTR)
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Extreme Networks (NASDAQ:EXTR) is scheduled to report Q3 results after the bell tonight (April 28). The Thomson Reuters estimate is for $0.02 per share on revenue of $76 million.

EXTR is mixed with its session-to-session share performance following an evening earnings event. It has widened 12 times and narrowed 12 times in the quarters we've tracked. The near-term trend favors reversing direction between the sessions, as seen in the last four quarters.

Looking deeper into data, shorts will note that the stock has declined 14 times, widening that move the next day only four times, or 28% of the time. The stock has gained on earnings news seven times and widened that move five times, more than 70% of the time. It's also not uncommon for a flat extended-hours performance after earnings news.

On Jan. 31, 2011, the stock fell 8.5% in after-hours action after an earnings miss. Shares bounced back with a 11.9% gain the following day.

On Nov. 1, 2010, EXTR gained 0.3% in after-hours action after coming in just shy of expectations on earnings. The stock dropped into the red the next day, ending the Nov. 2 regular session down 3.8%.

On Aug. 2, 2010, the stock fell 5.3% in after-hours trading following a report showing in-line earnings and guidance. Shares improved to gain a thin 0.3% the next day.

On April 26, 2010, the stock was up 5.1% after a Q3 beat and guidance in line to higher for Q4. Shares reversed and closed down 0.5% the next day.

On Feb. 1, 2010, the stock was up 4.3% after a Q2 beat. Shares advanced a more robust 9.4% the next day.

On Oct. 26, 2009, EXTR declined 1.3% in after-hours trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in quarterly results. The stock continued to drop lower in the Oct. 27 regular session, ending down 2.6%.

On July 30, 2009, EXTR ended the after-hours flat after topping Q4 expectations. The stock ended the July 31 regular session down 1.3%.

On April 23, 2009, the stock fell 3.9% after meeting with EPS but missing on revenue. Shares rebounded to gain 3.9% the next day.

On Jan. 28, 2009, the stock fell 1.6% during evening trading after the company meets with Q2 revenue and beats with earnings. Shares rebounded to gain 2.1% the next day.

On Nov. 3, 2008, the stock finished the evening session flat afer a Q1 miss. Shares rose 3.6%

On July 31, 2008, EXTR charged 9.2% higher in night trade after beating Q4 expectations. The stock cut back its upside the next day, closing the Aug. 1 regular session up a more modest 6.1%.

On April 23, 2008, the stock fell 4.4% during evening trading after a Q3 miss. The loss increased to 5.1% by the close of trading the next day.

On Jan. 24, 2008, EXTR beat expectations for Q2 and gained 7.2% in after-hours trade. It added modestly to that gain in the following regular session, advancing 8.8% by the close on Jan. 25.

On Oct. 24, 2007, the stock jumped 9.9% in evening trading after EXTR beat with Q1 results. The gain improved to 12.9% the next day.

On August 1, 2007, EXTR closed the night session flat after reporting Q4 results below Street views. Shares slipped the next day to end the regular session down 2.5%.

On April 26, 2007, EXTR dipped 0.9% in after hours when the company missed Q3 sales estimates. Shares slid further, closing the day session down 4.3%.

On Jan. 25, 2007, EXTR ended the night session flat despite reporting Q2 sales ahead of expectations. However, investors took note of the higher sales and bought the shares higher the next day. Shares ended the regular session up 7.8%.

On Oct. 26, 2006, EXTR tumbled 7.2% in after-hours activity after the company met Q1 revenue expectations but did not post earnings results due to an ongoing stock options inquiry. That downside was cut back in the Oct. 27 regular session, and EXTR lost 5.5% by the close.

On August 2, 2006, EXTR dropped 8.6% in evening trade after missing Q4 estimates and FY sales expectations. The shares rebounded slightly, ending the regular session down 5.3%.

On April 25, 2006, EXTR slipped 3.6% in after hours when the company reported Q3 sales that were just shy of expectations. EPS were in line with forecasts. The shares regained some ground the following day, closing the regular session down 2%.

On January 24, 2006, EXTR lost 6% in night trade after missing Q2 sales estimates and forecasting Q3 revenues beneath Street views. The shares recovered slightly the next day, ending the regular session down 4.2%.

On October 26, 2005, EXTR rose 2.9% after topping Q1 EPS estimates. Revenues were in line with expectations. The shares made a more aggressive advance the next day, ending the regular session up 5.1%.

EXTR dropped 4.9% after hours on August 3, 2005, despite posting better-than-expected Q4 revenue and guiding Q1 in line. It narrowed its range in the August 4 regular session, closing down 3.3%.

On the night of April 14, 2005, EXTR lost 9% after missing Q3 targets and guiding Q4 below the Street. It widened that move in the April 15 regular session, plunging 11.2% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 19, 2005, EXTR jumped 5.1% in after-hours trading after topping Q2 estimates. It accelerated its climb in the Jan. 20 regular session, surging 12.9%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.