Economic Calendar: PMI Numbers, Monetary Policy, And Employment Data

by: Econ Grapher

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 1st of May 2011. The week ahead sees PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data due out from a range of key economies including China, the U.S., the Euro Zone collectively and country-by-country, and others. On the monetary policy front there's the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, and European Central Bank among those reviewing policy settings. There's also employment data from the U.S., Canada, and New Zealand.

(More commentary follows the table)

Date GMT Country/ Currency Event Forecast Previous
SUN 01:30 AUD House Price Index (YoY) 1.60% 5.80%
MON 07:15 EUR French PMI Manufacturing 56.90 56.90
MON 07:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index 59.80 59.30
MON 07:45 EUR Italian PMI Manufacturing 56.00 56.20
MON 07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing 61.70 61.70
MON 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing 57.70 57.70
MON 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing 59.50 61.20
MON 01:00 CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI 60.20
MON 02:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 51.80
TUE 04:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75%
TUE 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 6.60% 6.60%
WED 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) -0.70% 0.10%
WED 07:15 EUR French PMI Services 63.40 63.40
WED 07:45 EUR Italian PMI Services 53.00 53.30
WED 07:55 EUR German PMI Services 57.70 57.70
WED 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Services 56.90 56.90
WED 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone PMI Composite 57.80 57.80
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) -0.10% -0.10%
WED 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 0.00% 0.10%
WED 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite 57.40 57.30
WED 22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.70% 6.80%
WED 02:30 CNY China HSBC Services PMI 51.70
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
THU 11:00 GBP Bank of England Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
THU 11:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 1.25% 1.25%
THU 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index 65.10 73.20
FRI 08:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output (YoY) 5.10% 5.40%
FRI 08:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output Core (YoY) 3.00% 3.00%
FRI 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production (YoY) 10.30% 14.80%
FRI 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate 7.70% 7.70%
FRI 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment 20.0K -1.5K
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls 200K 230K
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 20K 17K
FRI 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 190K 216K
FRI 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate 8.80% 8.80%
FRI 19:00 USD Consumer Credit $5.000B $7.617B

As noted, serveral key economies are set to release their PMI numbers this week. Already China has put its official numbers out showing a reading of 52.9 - down slightly from 53.4. China has yet to put its non-manufacturing results out, which may moderate somewhat. Elsewhere, the U.S. is expected to see the manufacturing PMI drop slightly, while the non-manufacturing index will likely come in flat. Likewise the Euro Zone will probably show April numbers relatively flat compared to March, across the board.

On monetary policy the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, ditto the Bank of England at 0.50% and the European Central Bank at 1.25%. The ECB will likely be stop-start in its policy tightening cycle (or normalization should we say). Elsewhere, the odd emerging market central bank will be tightening e.g. Malaysia, and possibly even China - as noted in my article on the Chinese PMI results.

Another key dataset due out this week is in the employment space. The U.S. is set to show another positive month for April. In terms of adding payrolls, consensus sees about 190k, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.8%. Meanwhile, Canada is seen adding 20k jobs in April, with its unemployment rate also stuck at 7.7%. In New Zealand, the Q1 jobs data is likely to show little improvement as the economy very slowly gathers momentum. With the impact of the Christchurch earthquake still weighing, the unemployment rate is forecast to stay in the high end of 6%.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.