Housing, Oil, Durable Goods Data on Wednesday's Economic Calendar

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

By Bryan McCormick

Today's economic calendar includes reports on housing, durable goods, and crude oil.

The weekly MBA Purchase Applications data will be released at 7 a.m. ET. I look only at the purchases component of the mortgage report, as do most traders, because it is a leading indicator of economic activity.

There is no forecast available for this release, but last week's purchases came in at 188.6. A reading higher than that by 5 percent or more would be bullish. If purchases came in lower by the same margin, it would be bearish.

Durable Goods Orders will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a -2.2 percent change from last month. The expectations range from a bearish -5.7 percent to a bullish 3.1 percent. If the number comes in at either extreme of the range, it will have a larger market impact.

The FHFA House Price Index comes out at 10 a.m. ET. There is no forecast available for this release, but last month's data saw a month-over-month drop of -1.6 percent and a year-over-year decrease of -5.7 percent. Negative readings are bearish, especially if they exceed declines of the previous month. Positive numbers would be very bullish.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a draw of -1.6 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a smaller draw of -0.86 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this smaller-than-estimated draw or shows a positive number indicating a build, it could be bearish for oil. If the draw is larger than the API's -0.86 million barrels, it could be bullish for crude.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.

This time around the data may not have its usual impact. Traders are focused instead on the potential for refineries in Louisiana to be damaged by flood waters of the Mississippi.