U.S Equity Market: Why Now is Not the Ideal Time to Invest

by: Michael Panzner

Aside from record high margin debt, which in and of itself should give pause for concern, the Wall Street Journal's "MarketBeat" blog lists a few other reasons why now might not be the ideal time to be looking for more of the same in the seemingly unstoppable U.S. equity market.

  • The VIX, commonly known as the “fear index,” is hovering around 10, a low point, suggesting a lot of carefree folks out there these days. This level is often a turning point, a calm before the storm, so to speak.
  • The Treasury yield curve inverted months ago, suggesting a recession was on the way. It hasn’t happened.
  • The Dow industrials, transports and utilities all closed at new highs on the same day last week — something that became a routine occurrence in just two years, 1929 and 1986, both preludes to big market falloffs.
  • The current rally is now the third longest since 1900 without a 10% correction.
  • The Dow industrials have set 30 new closing highs in the last few months.
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