Stock Market Forecast For 2015 Based On A Predictive Algorithm

Dec. 19, 2014 11:23 AM ETDIA, QQQ, SPY6 Comments
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I Know First Research


  • Full review of market performance in 2014 for the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500.
  • The best opportunities and weaknesses to be aware of coming into 2015.
  • What strategists and banks are forecasting for 2015 stock market.
  • 2015 stock market forecast for the short, mid, and long term based on state of the art predictive algorithms.

How 2014 performed with accordance to 2013 predictions

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) almost reached an all-time high, 1800, on December 5th, 2014 before plunging back down. This raises questions in regards to where equity markets will go in 2015. Investment Strategist James Paulsen told CNBC he "now sees a flat or even a negative year in 2015." The U.S. has experienced immense market growth in recent years with 2014 continuing the trend. General consensus argues that the U.S. economy is improving, and new jobs are rapidly being created, thus the bullish market should continue. This raises a serious fundamental question; are equity markets already accounting for the positive economic reports or not?

I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced algorithm based on artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict market performance for over 2,000 markets including stock forecasts, world indices, commodities, interest rates, ETFs, and currencies. The system follows the flow of money from one market into another.

This is the I Know First fundamental and algorithmic analysis of equity markets for fiscal year 2015.

Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trailing behind; however, it is still up 4.5% since the beginning of the year; S&P 500 (SPY) is up 8.61% and NASDAQ (QQQ) is up 11.5%. This fits well with yearly forecasts from 2013, but how did the algorithm perform overall? Below are the algorithm's prediction published on November 27th, 2013 for the year 2014 in the article 2014 market forecast by I Know First.

Figure 1: Original forecast table from the 2014 market forecast Seeking Alpha article I Know First released on Seeking Alpha back in 2013.

The charts above show the time horizons for the forecast, Index (top text), signal (middle number) and predictability (bottom number, this is a confidence level). A positive signal indicates a bullish market and

This article was written by

I Know First Research profile picture
I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market. Co-Founder Dr. Lipa Roitman, a scientist, with over 20 years of experience created the market prediction system. The algorithm is based on artificial intelligence, machine learning and incorporates elements of artificial neural networks as well as genetic algorithms to model and predict the flow of money between 10,000 markets from 3-days to a year: stocks, ETF's, world indices, gold, currencies, interest rates, and commodities. The algorithm outputs a predicted trend as a number, which in turn, is used by traders to identify when to enter and exit the market. While forecasts can be used for intra-day trading, the predictability tends to become stronger over longer time-horizons such as the 1-month, 3-month and 1-year forecasts. Visit us at

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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