Why Con Ed Stock Will Outperform Gold

| About: Consolidated Edison (ED)
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Well, maybe. With a 4.46% dividend yield and historical growth of 7% in earnings, Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED) will outperform gold over the next 10 years if the gold price remains below $2,750.

If the dollar keeps crashing, the gold price can rise by an arbitrary amount. But traded gold volatility is hovering around 15%, not much more than the 13% implied volatility on Con Ed options. And Con Ed pays a dividend yield of about 4.6%, and has an historical earnings growth rate of 7%.

If this were to continue, gold would have to rise to $2,750 in ten years to match the total returns on Con Ed. Given similar volatilities and the trend (dividend) in Con Ed earnings, Con Ed looks like a better deal.

That doesn’t mean that you should liquidate all your gold. On the contrary: keep a reasonable portfolio holding (maybe 7%) as an insurance policy against the (very unlikely) end of the world.

Chart forCBOE Gold Volatitity Index (^GVZ)

Volatility chart