ModernGraham Annual Valuation Of Citrix Systems Inc.

| About: Citrix Systems, (CTXS)

Summary

CTXS is not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.

According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.

The market is implying 10.02% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is within a margin of safety relative to the rate the company has seen in recent years.

Citrix Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CTXS) has demonstrated stable earnings over the last ten years, a trait that will often attract investors. However, Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, taught that the most important aspect to consider is whether the company is trading at a discount relative to its intrinsic value. It is through a thorough fundamental analysis that the investor is able to make a determination about a potential investment's merits. Here is a look at how Citrix Systems Inc. fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

The model is inspired by the teachings of Benjamin Graham and considers numerous metrics intended to help the investor reduce risk levels. The first part of the analysis is to determine whether the company is suitable for the very conservative Defensive Investor or the less conservative Enterprising Investor, who is willing to spend a greater amount of time conducting further research.

In addition, Graham strongly suggested that investors avoid speculation in order to remove the subjective elements of emotion. This is best achieved by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company's historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.

CTXS Chart

CTXS data by YCharts

Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3-year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg (price over normalized earnings) ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - FAIL
  5. Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS
Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $64.86
MG Value $83.51
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $32.94
Value Based on 0% Growth $19.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.02%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$10.20
PEmg 28.55
Current Ratio 0.99
PB Ratio 5.13

Balance Sheet - September 2014

Current Assets $1,445,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,462,000,000
Total Debt $1,285,000,000
Total Assets $5,231,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,197,000,000
Total Liabilities $3,135,000,000
Outstanding Shares 165,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $3.22
2013 $1.80
2012 $1.86
2011 $1.87
2010 $1.46
2009 $1.03
2008 $0.96
2007 $1.14
2006 $0.97
2005 $0.93
2004 $0.75

Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.27
2013 $1.73
2012 $1.61
2011 $1.42
2010 $1.17
2009 $1.02

Dividend History

Citrix Systems Inc. does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

As shown by the data, it is clear that conservative value investors may wish to seek other opportunities. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio in combination with the lack of dividend payments and the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has concerns with the high level of debt relative to the current assets along with the lack of dividends. As a result, both investor types would find the company to be too risky to proceed. That said, any investor willing to speculate about the future of the company may go ahead with the next step of the analysis, which is a determination of the company's intrinsic value.

When calculating an estimate of intrinsic value, it is important to consider the historical earnings results along with the market's implied estimate for future growth. Here, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.17 in 2010 to an estimated $2.27 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth is fairly strong, and is within a margin of safety relative to the market's implied estimate of 10.02%. As a result, the company appears to be fairly valued at the present time.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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