The Texas Railroad Commission has released their oil and gas production data for November. As most of you know, the Texas RRC data is always incomplete. Some data is updated immediately but the rest trickles in slowly, sometimes taking many months to years to complete. Nevertheless, we can glean some indication of what is happening from what data is reported. That is, if production is increasing, then the incomplete month-to-month data should be increasing. And it is, but very slowly.
The last data point in all charts below is November 2014 and the oil is in barrels per day.
Texas crude only is still increasing but the increase rate seems to be slowing down.
It is rather hard to tell what condensate is doing but the rate increase, if any, seems to be slowing.
Combining the two, we see an increase but not quite as great as the EIA seems to believe. The EIA data is only through October. Last month, the EIA altered their estimate of Texas C+C and lowered the estimated increase quite a bit. This month they reverted back to their old habits. They have June production up 82 kbd, July up 67 kbd, August up 45 kbd, September and October both up 48 kbd. I believe those figures are all quite optimistic.
All gas data is in MCF with the last data point November 2014.
Texas gas well gas peaked back in January of 2009 and bottomed out in December of that same year, then started to increase before peaking again in November of 2011. It has been mostly down since then.
Texas associated gas feinted a peak back in September of 2013 but turned back up again in only a couple of months. Now we seem to have another peak in August 2014. Will it hold? If oil production drops then there is little doubt that it will. Associated gas comes up with the oil. So what happened in September to cause associated gas to drop?
Combining the two, we get Texas total gas. Associated gas has kept Texas total gas from peaking… so far. But with both oil and gas prices extremely low it appears we have reached at least another temporary peak in Texas gas production.
Below are two graphs from this link. This article is too long to copy and paste but there is some very good data here you need to read. It puts the Bakken in a different light… if prices stay low.
Thought for the day: Peak oil will be the point in time when more oil is produced than has ever been produced in the history of the world, or ever will be in the future of the world. It is far more likely that this period will be thought of as a time of an oil glut rather than a time of an oil shortage.